Nigerian elections and the neopatrimonial paradox: In search of the social contract

Abstract

A review of a half century of Nigerian elections demonstrates the inextricable link between the Social Contract and election quality in the country. Ultimately, both must move forward if credible elections are to be sustained over the long term, for without a strong sense of public responsibility, power-holders are inclined to manipulate electoral systems to produce favourable outcomes. Nigeria initially enjoyed an ‘ethnic contract’ under which post-independence elites felt some obligation to care for the public interests of their ethnic constituents, but by the late 1980s the ethnic contract had largely given way to a more personal, neopatrimonial pattern of politics. Consequently, election quality has declined in every general election since 1993. As the 2011 elections fast approach, advocates of election reform must widen their scope to support the development of a viable political opposition that has an interest in credible elections and, ultimately, can help to build a national Social Contract.

Keywords:

• elections
• neopatrimonialism
• social contract
• ethnicity
• clientelism

Notes

1. Nigeria's major dailies reported a month after Abacha's death that papers were found on his desk that indicated he was ready to sack all of the service chiefs. See, for instance, The Guardian (Lagos), 15 July 1998. For other speculation, see Mudiaga Ofuoku, ‘Abacha's last days’, Newswatch, June 1998. http://www.onlinenigeria.com/abacha_last_days.asp.

2. Interviews with PDP leaders, 15 August 2007; 8 November 2007; 12 January 2008.

3. Interviews with AC leaders, 20 January 2010; ANPP leaders 25 January 2010.

4. See http://www.afrobarometer.org/access.html.

5. Also supported by author's interviews with two Nigerian conflict resolution organisations, 14 January and 1 March 2009.

6. Adapted from Richard Sklar (1963, 36).

7. Adapted from Diamond (1989, 227).

8. Richard A. Joseph, (1987, 125–7).

9. Richard A. Joseph, (1987, 125–7).

10. Richard A. Joseph, (1987, 125–7).

11. Adapted from Toyin Falola and Julius Ihonvbere, (1985, 220–1).

12. Adapted from Toyin Falola and Julius Ihonvbere, (1985, 220–1).

13. Adapted from Toyin Falola and Julius Ihonvbere, (1985, 220–1.

14. All 1991–1993 election results are from Diamond et al. (1997).

15. 1999 results from The Guardian (Lagos), February 24.

16. From Kew and Lewis (2008, 363–413).