Democracy, the Arab Spring and the Future (Great Powers) of International Politics: A Structural Realist Perspective

Abstract

Liberal optimism about the future of world affairs continues to pervade discourse on international politics. Recent events, notably the Arab Spring, have ostensibly justified such optimism and have further bolstered democratic-peace-inspired notions of permanent peace. I challenge the validity of this optimism by drawing on Kenneth Waltz's structural realist theory and by arguing that, irrespective of the future democratisation of the world, the future of international politics is bound to be marked by increased complexity. This conclusion is buttressed by three observations: one, the crux of liberal optimism, i.e. democratic-peace theory, is flawed; two, the state of liberal democracy within and beyond areas common to liberal thought is highly problematic; and three, with respect to international peace, the future (liberal) democratisation of China, Russia or of whomever else will matter less than usually presumed. In more ways than one, the future of international politics is likely to resemble its conflict-prone past.

Notes

Thus, as then Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has noted, Russia ‘must rely on the very latest developments in the art of war. Falling behind means becoming vulnerable’ (Putin 2012). In respect of US-European military competition and arms transfers in particular, recent arguments emphasise that US policy objectives should be ensuring that the major arms importers of the world ‘buy products from the United States rather than China, Russia, or even western Europe’ (Caverley and Kapstein 2013; emphasis added).

It should be noted that the concepts ‘democracy’ and ‘liberalism’ and, by extension, ‘democratic peace theory’ and ‘liberal peace theory’ do not necessarily coincide. The argument advanced here has bearing on both.

We will, in the next section, consider whether this condition still characterises the world of the present.

We should add that, in financial terms, questions abound in respect of the survivability of the US dollar as the reserve currency of the international financial system and that China has already called for its replacement (Layne 2011).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Eben Coetzee

Department of Political Studies & Governance, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa.