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Abstract
The 2011 Local Government elections in the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality (NMBM) represented the beginning of a potentially significant shift in the political landscape of South Africa. The Democratic Alliance increased its vote total from the 2006 Local Government Elections by 14.8% to 40.2% and won 10 single member ward districts previously held by the African National Congress (ANC). The ANC held on to its majority position but gained only 51.9% of the votes and 63 of the 120 councillor positions in the NMBM. Understanding the patterns of vote shift is crucial to understanding whether or not the 2011 Local Government Elections portends the permanent decline of the ANC as a dominant electoral force in the NMBM. Additionally, to what extent the decline in an ANC-stronghold signals a possible decline nationally for the 2014 General Elections emerges as a crucial question for the future of South African electoral politics.
Notes
1. Since 2009 the position of City Manager has been a position of political contestation. The last City Manager resigned due to political interference which affected her ability to do her job. In 2011 the Kabuso report detailed endemic corruption and state predation at the local municipal level in Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality. The recently released Pikoli report further speaks of endemic predation and mismanagement of public funds, which has led to the Municipality to be financially stressed and seeking a bail-out from the Treasury. The Council has been unable to hold a meeting to deal with critical issues such as ward committee structures as striking municipal workers has taken the councilors hostages on three separate occasions in 2013.
2. In 2010 the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality faced a financial crisis due to ambitious budgeting and fruitless and wasteful expenditure that resulted in an inability of the municipality to pay salaries and its creditors (The Herald, 24 February 2011). The Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality has received qualified audits since 2011.
3. Interview with Leon De Villiers, Head of the DA caucus in the NMBM, Port Elizabeth, 25 January 2012.
4. Data generated using Atlas.ti function on autocoding.
5. Data generated using Atlas.ti function on autocoding.
6. Interview with Andrew Whitfield, NMBM Democratic Alliance Councillor, 7 March 2013.
7. Ignore upstarts, says ANC, City Press, 05 May 2011.
8. Parties make new round of promises before polls, The Herald, 17 May 2011.
9. Zuma address at the Siyanqoba Election Rally, Soweto, 15 May 2011.
10. On 14 May 2011, Zuma stated that should the ANC lose NMBM, ‘ … the ancestors of the ANC will turn their back on you and you'll have continuous bad luck’ (Mail & Guardian Citation2011).
11. Interview with Andrew Whitfield, NMBM Democratic Alliance Councilor, 26 January 2012.
12. ‘Burn the Herald’, The Herald, 20 May 2011.
13. ‘Burn the Herald’, The Herald, 20 May 2011.
14. Under the current dispensation there are a total of sixty wards that include wards with significant Coloured voters in both Uitenhage and Despatch, leading to our designation of 15 current Northern Area wards dominated by Coloured voters with the exception of ward 41
15. Interview with NMBM, Democratic Alliance Councillor, Marshall Buchenroder, Gelvandale, 16 February 2012.
16. Interview with NMBM, Democratic Alliance Councillor, Marshall Buchenroder, Gelvandale, 16 February 2012.
17. Interview with NMBM, Democratic Alliance Councillor, Kenneth Kohl, Uitenhage, 5 April 2012.
18. Interview with NMBM, African National Congress MPL/Christian Martin, Chatty Extension, 3 April 2012.
19. Kohl Interview, 5 April 2012.
20. Martin, Interview, 3 April 2012.
21. Interview with DA PR Councillor, Andrew Whitfield, 7 March 2013.
22. Interview with Janet Cherry, Lecturer at NMMU, long time ANC activist, 14 March 2013.
23. Interview with Andrew Whitfield, 7 March 2013.
24. In 2011 following its successful registration as a student organisation, the Democratic Alliance Student Organization (DASO) defeated the ANC-affiliated South African Student Organization (SASCO) by 11 seats to 10. In 2012 the DA widened its margin to sixteen seats to five. This trend toward the Democratic Alliance at NMMU was also validated in an opinion poll conducted at the school by the authors in 2012 demonstrating almost 100% support among white students for the DA while Black student support was divided, 52% for the ANC and 36% support for the DA.