What's Trust Got to do with it? Measuring Levels of Political Trust in South Africa 20 Years after Democratic Transition

ABSTRACT

Democratic consolidation relies on a degree of political trust and support for new democratic institutions and actors. A decline in political trust threatens the legitimacy of institutions, and democracy itself. Using Ipsos Khayabus 2014 national public opinion survey data, the paper explores levels of political trust in South Africa's transitional society in late 2014. It asks whether there is a sufficient mass of ‘critical citizens’ to ensure accountable government, and trust expressed towards key objects in the political system. We find that a majority of South Africans are critical citizens, offering conditional support based on performance evaluations. However, we also find little distinction in the minds of citizens between political institutions and the actors that inhabit them. Low levels of trust in political actors tend to erode trust in institutions. In turn, political trust in democratic institutions is also linked to evaluations of the ruling party; signalling the dangers of a prolonged stay in power by a dominant party. Finally, we conclude with possible implications for democratic consolidation by arguing that if despondence with current actors and institutions increases citizens may become less satisfied with democracy and less inclined to embrace the dream of a democratic, unified nation.

Funding

The authors want to thank the NRF for incentive funding for rated researchers that made this project possible.

Notes

1 See O'Donnell, Schmitter, and Whitehead (1986a, 1986b) and Linz and Stepan (1996).

2 For a discussion of the ‘messiness' of the operationalization of political trust see Norris (2011, 19–21).

3 See also South African History online http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/public-protest-democratic-south-africa (accessed 25 January 2015).

4 How much do you trust each of the following, or haven't you heard enough about them to say? (1) Haven't heard of them/refused; (2) Not at all; (3) Not much; (4) Somewhat; (5) A lot; (99) Don't Know. The responses for ‘haven't heard of them/refused’ and ‘Don't know’ are combined in the tables and are removed from the bivariate analysis.

5 The mean score excludes Don't know; Refused; Haven't heard enough. The higher the mean score the more trust is expressed. Also see Mishler and Rose (1997, 422) for similar analyses for trust variables.

6 Responses in category (1) with don't know, refused and haven't heard enough to say are removed from analysis due to very small percentages.

7 The bivariate correlations are the original coding of the confidence variables with four ordinal categories. The don't know, refused and haven't heard enough to say responses are removed from the analysis.

8 The survey asks respondents ‘how well would you say the government is handling the following: (1) Fighting corruption in government, and (2) Maintaining transparency and accountability?’ (1) Not at all well; (2) Not very well; (3) Fairly well; (4) Very well; (6) Don't know/refused.

9 In general, are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, not very satisfied or not at all satisfied with the way democracy is working in South Africa? (0) Not at all satisfied; (1) Not satisfied; (2) Fairly satisfied; (3) Very satisfied; (99) Don't know. The don't know responses are removed from the bivariate analysis.

10 There are many ways to govern a country. Which one of the following options comes closest to your own opinion? (1) Only one political party is allowed to stand for election and hold office; (2) The army governs the country; (3) Elections and Parliament are abolished so that the president can decide everything; (4) Return to the old system we had under Apartheid; (5) Democracy the way it is now; (6) None of these.

11 Let's suppose you had to choose between being a South African or only being someone of (X group = ethnic/linguistic group such as Afrikaans, Zulu) origin. Which of the following phrases best expresses your feelings? (1) I feel only South African; (2) I feel more South African than (X group); (3) I feel equally South African and (X group);(4) I feel more (X group) than South African; (5) I feel only (X group); (6) None of the above; (7) Refused; (8) Don't know.