South African electoral trends: prospects for coalition governance at national and provincial spheres in 2024

ABSTRACT

The 2021 local government elections (LGE) in the Republic of South Africa once again delivered hung metropolitan municipalities – a phenomenon that became common following the 2016 LGE results. The City of Cape Town is, however, a metropolitan municipality that has experienced coalition governance since the early 2000s, while the rest of South Africa's metropolitan municipalities were governed by the ruling African National Congress from 1994 to 2016. The 2021 LGE delivered coalition governments across the majority of metropolitan councils, namely: City of Tshwane (the capital), City of Johannesburg (Africa's economic hub), Ekurhuleni Metropolitan Municipality, City of Ethekwini, and Nelson Mandela Bay Metropolitan Municipality. This paper provides a conceptualisation of 'coalition governance and politics', and key characteristics of this phenomenon in South Africa and globally. Conceptual and operational understandings of coalitions is crucial given their increasing prevalence in South Africa. Areas of cooperation, compromise, consensus and divergence among the prospective coalition partners in South Africa are also examined in the article (based on political party electoral performance trends, political ideology, policy preferences and leadership personalities and qualities). Such factors are important because they determine the likely feasibility, efficiency, effectiveness and sustainability of coalition governments.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).