Forecasting African coups d' etat

ABSTRACT

Thirty‐five majority‐ruled states of Sub‐Saharan Africa independent at the end of 1970 are studied. Data from 1960 through the end of 1982 are reported on each state's experience with military interventions into national politics: coups, attempted coups, and coup plots. The resulting Total Military Intervention Score (TMIS) index for 1960–1982 is explained by a ten variable, single equation regression model based upon theories of social mobilization, political institutionalization, civil‐military relations, and international political economy. This explanatory model is used to generate ex post forecasts of TMIS for 1970–1982. Using a linear probability model and discriminant function analysis based upon the original explanatory model and the ex post results, ex ante forecasts of serious military interventions for the two years 1983–1984 are generated. These forecasts are compared to the actual record of interventions in these two years. Finally, using Bayesian methods, forecasts of interventions for 1985 are produced and reported.