White politics : constraint or opportunity?

ABSTRACT

The far‐reaching changes announced by the State President during his speech on the 2nd February 1990, especially the unbanning of the African National Congress (ANC), South African Communist Party (SACP) and Pan African Congress (PAC), raises important questions about the response of the white electorate to these moves. The opposition Conservative Party (CP) has charged that the National Party (NP) has exceeded the statements contained in its election documents issued during the 1989 general election campaign. This paper reviews the debate between the NP and the CP on the issue of the mandate and concludes that the NP is presently acting within its mandate although there are two areas (group rights and violence) where there is some uncertainty. It then briefly reviews the electoral patterns of the 1980s arguing that the greatest growth in right wing support took place early in the decade. The final section examines indicators of a resurgent right wing, especially in areas where the CP has had limited support so far. It concludes that in the new political environment, the CP may stand to gain substantial new support but that this would probably not be sufficient to defeat proposals for a new constitution put to the voters at a referendum. At the same time, however, the risk of the right wing accomplishing a reversal of the current settlement process cannot be ignored.