Abstract
The formation of the United Democratic Movement (UDM) led to speculation that the dominance of the African National Congress (ANC) would be threatened. The popularity of its leaders—Bantu Holomisa and Roelf Meyer—promised to give the party a significant support base. In the June 1999 election the UDM obtained 3.42 per cent of the national vote. In less than two years of its existence, and despite financial difficulties and lack of a national profile in the period leading up to the election, it managed to become the fifth biggest party. This article argues, however, that the UDM is unlikely to feature prominently beyond the next election. Its support base is regionally concentrated and is built on short‐term interests that the ruling party has started to address.