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Abstract
In this article a component method is used to examine the effects of migration on population projection in Hong Kong. We assume no migration and use the reported fertility and mortality patterns to simulate the population distribution for the period 1998–2016 It is shown that the ageing phenomenon would be serious if there was no migration. In 1996, the elderly dependency ratio would have been 153 per 1,000 population aged between 15 and 64, as computed with 141 as observed. Similarly, the elderly dependency ratio in 2016 would he 216 as projected instead of 184 estimated on the basis of existing immigration policy. The median age was estimated to be 45 years of age. Possible effects of ageing are discussed.
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Notes on contributors
Paul S F Yip
Paul S F Yip is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Hong Kong, a member of Medical and Health Research Network, and a Fellow of the Center of Asian Studies of the University
Joseph Lee
Joseph Lee is a Research Fellow of the Center of Asian Studies, University of Hong Kong, and was formerly the Deputy Commissioner of the Census and Statistics Department of the Hong Kong Government