Socio-hydrological modelling for incorporating human behaviour into storage–yield analysis

ABSTRACT

A socio-hydrological model that simulates, couples and co-evolves reservoir operation and human behaviour to assess the impact of unauthorized water abstractions on reservoir performance is developed. The model relates hydrological state, well-being, user compliance and management competence and is applied to two reservoirs. To generalize the modelling, well-being, user compliance and management competence are normalized (0 to 1) and modelled using logistic functions. When compliance is below the set threshold, unauthorized water abstraction occurs; the magnitude depends on water allocation, user compliance and management competence. In the absence of real data, eight hypothetical scenarios are applied. The expected dependence of well-being on the hydrological state and that of well-being, virtues and management competence on user risk perception and user compliance was realized as initially hypothesized. The variation of the effect of human factors on storage and yield was found to be more pronounced during low hydrological states (drought). The modelling is considered applicable for assessing the likely impact of humans on real reservoir performance.

KEYWORDS:

• human behaviour
• reservoir operation
• socio-hydrology
• storage
• yield
• unauthorized water abstraction

Editor A. Castellarin; Associate Editor B. Bonaccorso

Editor A. Castellarin; Associate Editor B. Bonaccorso

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.