ON SIMULATION IN PLANNING NETWORKS

Abstract

Construction activities generally have a non-negligible amount of variability associated with them. This has lead to the consideration of techniques such as PERT, PNET and Monte Carlo simulation in the planning of construction projects. This paper firstly proposes a modification to the PNET procedures and then goes on to examine Monte Carlo simulation in an integrated cost-time formulation under three options relating to the latest finish date of the project final activity. Two of the options lead to the possibility of negative float while the criticality index for the activities is different for all options. The approach is demonstrated on a three-span bridge construction project. A variance reduction technique is used to reduce the number of computations.

KEY WORDS:

• Critical path method. PERT
• PNET
• Monte Carlo simulation
• probability
• criticality index