TARGET LEVELS IN TRAFFIC SAFETY ANALYSIS

Abstract

The concept of target based traffic safety investment is discussed. A procedure is developed to establish the optimum target level [reduction in accident frequency, rate, or risk] that can be achieved when the expected cost of the countermeasure(s) and the expected cost of accidents is considered. Expected level of safety without countermea-sure and effectiveness of countermeasure are both treated as random variables, and it is shown that the optimum target is dependent on the form of the probability distribution, its parameters, and the ratio of accident cost to countermeasure cost. Application of the procedure to routine safety analysis and management is demonstrated using simple numerical examples.

KEY WORDS:

• traffic safety
• risk
• expected values
• target levels
• optimum safety level