An investigation of home advantage and other factors affecting outcomes in English one-day cricket matches

Abstract

We examined the factors affecting the outcome of cricket matches played in the English one-day county cricket league. In particular, we focused on the home-field effect and the importance of winning the pre-match toss of a coin to determine a team's strategic decision to bat first or second. A home-field effect appeared to be confirmed in that home teams won 57% of all matches with a win/loss result. A logistical regression model was used, with the outcome variable defined in terms of a home team win/loss. We found that while winning the toss is an important aspect of a one-day cricket match, other factors tend to dominate in determining the result, especially team quality and match importance for the home and away teams in the overall league context. Our results also indicate, not surprisingly given the nature of cricket attendance and spectating, that the crowd effect is largely insignificant. The results of our study do not support any rule changes requiring the abandonment of the coin toss to determine batting order.

Keywords:

• Cricket
• home advantage
• team sports
• tournament rules

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank the editor and two anonymous referees for their careful reading of previous versions of this paper and detailed suggestions regarding its improvement. We also acknowledge the insightful comments made by a number of colleagues at the University of Wales Aberystwyth. Any remaining errors are the sole responsibility of the authors.