The adolescent motor performance development of elite female soccer players: A study of prognostic relevance for future success in adulthood using multilevel modelling

ABSTRACT

Considering the scarce empirical evidence regarding talent predictors in female youth soccer, the present study aimed to investigate the long-term prognostic validity of elite female soccer players’ adolescent motor performance for future success in adulthood. Additionally, the three-year development of highly talented girls’ motor performance and the predictive value of this motor development for reaching a professional adult performance level (APL) was analysed.

Overall, N = 737 female players participated in nationwide motor diagnostics (sprinting, agility, dribbling, ball control, shooting) within the German Soccer Association’s talent identification and development programme at least twice between the age groups Under-12 (U12) and U15. Based on their APL at least four years later, participants were assigned to a professional (first German division, 6.2%) or non-professional group (lower divisions, 93.8%).

Multilevel regression analyses revealed a general prognostic relevance for the investigated parameters with respect to players’ APL. In addition, there was a non-linear improvement in participants’ motor performance across all variables from U12 to U15. However, non-significant interactions between APL and these improvements indicate motor performance development itself cannot adequately predict players’ future success in adulthood. Findings provide insightful information that can help coaches foster optimal support for young female soccer players’ development.

KEYWORDS:

• Women’s soccer
• talent prognosis
• football
• longitudinal study
• adult performance level
• multilevel analysis

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank the staff of the DFB (in particular, Thorsten Becht, Jörg Daniel, Dr. Thomas Hauser, Claus Junginger, and Tobias Kieß) for the provision of data and their valuable support.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Data availability statement

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

Additional information

Funding

This work is part of the research project “Scientific support of the DFB’s Talent Development Programme” which is funded by the DFB.