Construction forecasting: The Delphi approach. A survey of Canadian office construction for 1986

Summary

A variety of approaches have been developed which attempt to forecast office construction. These range from mathematical modelling techniques (in particular regession analyses) to ‘gut extrapolations’, with minimal specifications. This paper reviews, briefly, certain of the more significant recent developments in the field. It is suggested that an intuitive, value based approach, which incorporates in an organized fashion the market perceptions of real estate practioners, can offer decision‐makers certain advantages over the more formal systems at this time. A forecast of Canadian office construction for 1986, so based, concludes the presentation. The forecast predicts a decline in office construction for 1986 and 1987.

Keywords:

• Forecasting
• Canada
• office construction
• Delphi