Spatio-temporal improvised explosive device monitoring: improving detection to minimise attacks

Abstract

The improvised explosive device (IED) is a weapon of strategic influence on today's battlefield. IED detonations occur predominantly on roads, footpaths, or trails. Therefore, locations are best described when constrained to the road network, and some spaces on the network are more dangerous at specific times of the day. We propose a statistical model that reduces the spatial location to one dimension and uses a cyclic time as a second dimension. Based on the Poisson process methodology, we develop normalised, inhomogeneous, bivariate intensity functions measuring the threat of attack to support resourcing decisions. A simulation and an analysis of attacks on a main supply route in Baghdad are given to illustrate the proposed methods. Additionally, we provide an overview of the growing demand for the analysis efforts in support of operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, and provide an extensive literature review of developments in counter-IED analysis.

Keywords:

• periodic spatio-temporal cluster
• linear referencing
• Poisson process
• risk
• intensity function

Acknowledgements

We thank the editor, as well as Colonel Clark Heidelbaugh and two anonymous reviewers for valuable comments on the manuscript. We would also like to thank JIEDDO for their support of this research effort and the spirit of collaboration they have facilitated in this important field.