Climate change adaptation for sustainable development: the information and communication technology (ICT) paradox

Introduction

Climate change is perhaps the most important phenomenon to have dominated the discourse of sustainable development at this time. Renewal of environmental resources appear to be slower than the rate at which they are being used up. Climate change is defined broadly as a range of global phenomena created predominantly by burning fossil fuels, which add heat-trapping or ‘greenhouse’ gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂), water vapor, methane, nitrous oxide and Chlorofluorocarbons to the Earth’s atmosphere. These phenomena include the increased temperature trends described by global warming, but also encompass changes such as sea level rise; ice mass loss in Greenland, Antarctica, the Arctic and mountain glaciers worldwide; shifts in flower/plant blooming; and extreme weather events (NASA, 2019). At the center of this discourse are the changing global weather patterns in which hurricanes have increased in size and intensity, droughts and higher temperatures have increased the number of fires globally causing habitats to disappear and change the way ecosystems may or may not support life.

The effect of climate change is global. Homelessness from such disasters is on the rise making vulnerable populations increasingly prone to food insecurity, disease and civic unrest. Damage from climate change disproportionately affects the poorest populations of the world who face homelessness, poverty and disease at higher rates than those with the means to adapt. Otto et al. (2017) identify social vulnerability to climate change and find that it is related to poverty. They found that populations that were most vulnerable to climate change impacts fell within four well-being dimensions: health, safety, food security, and displacement of populations. Climate change increases health inequities in the most vulnerable populations, food inequities increase through droughts and floods by reducing the supply of crops and increasing food prices. Increased conflict, insecurity, and social breakdown are often seen as bringing about negative social effects of climate change along with an increase in displaced populations who struggle to access dwindling natural resources. Heeks and Ospina (2010) add that understanding vulnerably in populations is critical in exploring the potential effects of climate-related hazards and changing trends in low-income populations. They view vulnerability as the likelihood of exposure to an external shock combined with the ability to cope with its impact. In this context, the populations in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are seen to be the most vulnerable to climate change as they are among the first to experience the worst and most devastating impacts of climate change with greater risks to economies, livelihoods, and food security (UNDP, 2019).

At the time of writing this piece, a new generation of activists lead by Greta Thunberg carry out strikes in major cities across the world to protest their perception that there is a lack of action on climate change. In her address to the United Nation’s Climate Action Summit in New York City, Greta Thunberg stated:

“The popular idea of cutting our emissions in half in 10 years only gives us a 50% chance of staying below 1.5 degrees [Celsius], and the risk of setting off irreversible chain reactions beyond human control. … those numbers do not include tipping points, most feedback loops, additional warming hidden by toxic air pollution or the aspects of equity and climate justice. They also rely on my generation sucking hundreds of billions of tons of your CO₂ out of the air with technologies that barely exist … So a 50% risk is simply not acceptable to us — we who have to live with the consequences … To have a 67% chance of staying below a 1.5 degrees global temperature rise – the best odds given by the [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] – the world had 420 gigatons of CO₂ left to emit back on Jan. 1st, 2018. Today that figure is already down to less than 350 gigatons.” She added that “With today's emissions levels, that remaining CO₂ budget will be entirely gone within less than 8 1/2 years.” (Thunberg, September 23, 2019).

The crisis is real. The trend does not appear to be reversible. Saving the planet from the devastating effects of climate change requires an understanding of what constitutes climate change, causes of these changes and the effects these changes have on livelihoods. At the heart of this crisis is the scientific consensus that climate change is caused primarily by human activities (Cook et al., 2016; NASA, 2019). The following sections focus on the role of ICTs in climate change and how they may be used to create positive adaptations to climate change.

The information and communication technology (ICT) paradox

There is evidence to suggest that the widespread use of ICTs contributes to the depletion of finite energy resources and increasing levels of greenhouse gases. It has been suggested that ICTs are among the sources contributing to the increasing levels of CO₂ emissions in terms of production of ICT machinery and devices, energy consumption, and recycling of electronic waste (Higón, Gholami, & Shirazi, 2017; Hilty, Lohmann, & Huang, 2011). Large datacenters, cryptocurrency mining, enterprise systems that power global supply networks and financial transactions constitute human activities that contribute to climate change. At the same time, ICTs can contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gasses. Higón et al. (2017) also found that ICT can reduce CO₂ emissions on a global scale by developing smarter cities, transportation systems, electrical grids, industrial processes, and energy saving gains. Their empirical results indicate that ICT could positively contribute to the reduction of CO₂ emissions once a threshold level of ICT development is achieved. They found that at low levels of development, further ICT investments increase CO₂ emissions. CO₂ emissions start to reduce after a threshold level of ICT development has been achieved. They also found that CO₂ emissions increase with the level of GDP per capita and industry share of value added.

This ICT paradox offers some useful insights into addressing environmental shocks from climate change. Technological efficiency alone cannot produce sustainability. Gains in efficiency from ICTs may in fact have the opposite effect. Hilty et al. (2011) offer a view into this paradox. They suggest that both ICT products and non-ICT products are influenced by the availability of ICT services. Despite the considerable efficiency gains in and by ICT during the last decades, Hilty et al. (2011) suggest that in terms of total energy consumption, there is little or no evidence that efficiency strategies alone have led to a more sustainable situation. Sustainable development is defined as development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (Keeble, 1988). The role of ICT for sustainable development is seen to be in the areas of Environmental Economics, Green Information Technology/Information Systems and Sustainable Human–Computer Interaction (Hilty et al., 2011; Melville, 2010). Without effective limitations, the enabling ICT innovations, in cars for example, develop more slowly and serve mainly to stimulate additional activities (e.g. an increase in speed makes transport more attractive) instead of replacing existing activities (Hilty et al., 2011).

There is a role for ICTs within Information Systems to assist people in organizations create sustainable adaptations to climate change in their local communities. Melville (2010) defines Information Systems (IS) for environmental sustainability as IS-enabled organizational practices and processes that improve environmental and economic performance. This broad conceptualization of organizational performance comprises economic, environmental, and social dimensions. He argues that environmental sustainability is distinctive in scope, complexity, and urgency. The sustainability context extends the social, organizational, and individual domains to include the natural environment: air, land, water, and other natural resources. One implication of this complex and multi-layered phenomenon is the existence of alternative frames for the problem, including the rational (economic considerations such as productivity and profitability), natural (environmental sustainability, including preservation of natural resources and mitigation of climate change), and humanist (personal satisfaction and social needs such as fair trade practices and human rights) (Melville, 2010).

Vulnerability to climate change or the capacity to cope with the impacts of climate change relate to external shocks that impact food security and agriculture, health, water supply, human settlement and displacement, socio-political changes and livelihoods and finance. With this definition of vulnerability, Heeks and Ospina (2010) offer a means of understanding adaptation to climate change in terms of a response to a chronic trend such as rising temperatures or sea levels. They state that processes of adaptation to climate change involve the recovery from an environmental shock and change to the ways in which people cope with the damage from the shock. The adaptation process requires good governance and assets such as human social and physical capital. The more varied the asset base, the more sustainable and secure is the livelihood, and the stronger the ability of the population to respond to impacts of climate change. They add that in order to adapt to climate change, people need adaptive capacities to mobilse the social and physical resources they need to cope with climate change (Heeks & Ospina, 2010).

In adaptation to climate change, the role of ICTs is in offering systemic resilience to climate change. This may take place through the use of mobile phones to help mobilize assets to support recovery from environmental hazards. Heeks and Ospina (2010) suggest that ICTs offer adaptive capacity to climate change by helping strengthen physical preparedness through technologies such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS). ICTs may also facilitate access to a broader set of capital assets, such as mobile applications that bring small entrepreneurs and farmers into regional and global supply chains. ICTs can enable swift access to and mobilization of financial assets through mobile banking and payment systems such as the recent use of Bitcoin wallets. Mobile based disaster warning, response and relief systems to support recovery efforts and emergency management have offered innovative adaptations for vulnerable populations. ICT enabled skills and access to knowledge have offered processes for adaptation to the effects of climate change. By sharing environmental observations and monitoring through ICTs, new ways of assimilating information on changes to the natural environment can be shared through wider networks to bring about combined action (Heeks & Ospina, 2010; Hilty et al., 2011; and Melville, 2010).

The use of ICTs by vulnerable populations can offer systemic resilience. ICT implementations involve human behavior within broader social, organizational and environmental contexts. Examples of systemic resilience are offered in the papers in this issue. The following section summarizes the research in the ways in which ICTs are adopted and used by vulnerable populations.

Papers in this issue

The papers in this issue offer ways in which adaptations to climate change can be carried out through ICT policy, use and adoption. While these papers do not specifically address climate change, they do offer specific ways in which the ICTs can be used to address the social vulnerabilities that disproportionately affect those with limited resources to cope with the effects.

The first paper entitled “Technology-driven information sharing and conditional financial development in Africa” is co-authored by Simplice Asongu, John Anyanwu and Vanessa Tchamyou. The authors argue that information technology is increasingly facilitating mechanisms by which information asymmetry between lenders and borrowers in the financial sector can be reduced in order to enhance financial access for human and economic development in developing countries. They examine conditional financial development from ICT-driven information sharing in 53 African countries for the period 2004-2011, using contemporary and non-contemporary quantile regressions. ICT is measured with mobile phone penetration and internet penetration, whereas information-sharing offices are public credit registries and private credit bureaus. Their findings suggest first, that there are positive effects with positive thresholds from ICT-driven information sharing on financial depth (money supply and liquid liabilities) and financial activity (at banking and financial system levels). Second, for financial intermediation efficiency, the positive effects from mobile-driven information sharing are apparent exclusively in certain levels of financial efficiency. Third, with regard to financial size, mobile-driven information sharing is positive with a negative threshold, whereas internet-driven information sharing is positive exclusively among countries in the bottom half of financial size. Positive thresholds are defined as decreasing negative or increasing positive estimated effects from information-sharing offices and vice versa for negative thresholds. Policy implications are discussed. The main policy implication from the study is that information sharing increases financial. There are important policy implications of this research. One of which suggested by the authors is that ICT-driven information-sharing offices can be tailored toward reducing surplus liquidity issues on the continent by enhancing financial allocation efficiency with more proportionate action on countries with low initial levels of financial development.

The second paper entitled ‘Towards closing the gender gap in Iraq: understanding gender differences in smartphone adoption and use’ is co-authored by Nisreen Ameen and Robert Willis. Their paper addresses ICT adoption and use in socially vulnerable populations – women. The authors state that the labor force participation of women in Iraq is only 8%. They examine gender differences in Iraq in terms of smartphone adoption and use, with a specific focus on the factors that can affect women's adoption and use of smartphones. Their research draws upon the mobile phone acceptance and use model. In total, 533 questionnaires were distributed to consumers aged 18–29 and the data were analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modeling. Their findings reveal that the model fits well with men and women, but the order of significance of the factors differed between the two genders. Three factors in the model had significantly different effects on behavioral intention when compared by gender. These three factors are culture-specific beliefs and values, habit and perceived relative advantage. The findings indicate that when assisting Iraqi women with adoption and use of smartphones, other factors in addition to price must be considered.

Abdallah Alsaad, Rosli Mohamad and Noor Azizi Ismail co-author the third paper in this issue entitled ‘The contingent role of dependency in predicting the intention to adopt B2B e-commerce’. Their review of the existing Electronic Commerce adoption literature reveals that the prevailing theoretical frameworks implicitly assume that organizations are independent and have complete control over their decisions to adopt innovations. Organizations are often constrained by and depend on their environment and exchange partners to survive. The authors contend that Resource Dependency can either be a facilitator or inhibitor of the role of Technological, Organizational, and Environmental (TOE) motivating factors. Using 239 valid responses from supply chain managers in Jordan, the study found partial support for the role of Resource Dependency as a moderator. The findings provide insights on how Resource Dependency between partners drives different patterns of innovation acceptance among potential adopters, regardless of several technological and organizational motivations to innovate. The results suggest that predicting how innovation is diffused within a market needs a detailed understanding of the inter-dependence structure among the supply chain members.

The final paper in this issue entitled ‘Factors affecting the adoption of information and communication technology in small and medium enterprises: a perspective from rural Saudi Arabia’ is co-authored by Adnan Mustafa Al Bar and Md. Rakibul Hoque. Rural communities are some of the most vulnerable populations to the effects of climate change. The authors contend that Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) can play an important role in the national economy of developing countries. In particular, SMEs are operated by people with access to limited resources and income. The adoption of information and communication technology (ICT) has enabled local SMEs to participate in the international market. However, little research has addressed issues related to SMEs adopting ICTs, especially in rural areas of Middle Eastern developing countries such as Saudi Arabia. Using the extended technology-organization-environment framework with personal innovativeness, this study examines the factors that influence the adoption of ICTs among SMEs in rural areas of Saudi Arabia. The study found that relative advantages, top management support, culture, regulatory environment, owner/manager innovativeness and ICT knowledge had a significant relationship with ICT adoption among SMEs in Saudi Arabia, whereas compatibility, complexity and a competitive environment had no significant relationship with ICT adoption. The findings of this study potentially help SME managers/owners and the government in the successful adoption and diffusion of ICT in SMEs located in rural areas in Saudi Arabia.

In conclusion it appears that adaptations to environmental shocks caused by climate change can be facilitated through the adoption and use of ICTs, in particular mobile phones. The appropriate adoption and use of ICTs by vulnerable populations can strengthen the ability of the population to respond to unfamiliar yet intense impacts of climate change. Research is needed into the application ICTs as a tool for adaptation to climate change and ways in which such adaptations can offer systemic resilience to vulnerable populations as they recover from.

Acknowledgements

I would like to thank Associate Editor Richard Heeks for his valuable feedback on an earlier version of this editorial. I am also grateful to Felix Bankole for his thoughtful insight on this topic.