III. THE LOGIC OF NUCLEAR RESTRAINT

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Notes

¹US Department of Defense, ‘Nuclear Posture Review Report 2010’, April 2010, p. iii.

²‘Hearing Before the Subcommittee on Strategic Forces of the Committee on Armed Services, United States Senate, May 4, 2011’, p. 6, <http://www.fas.org/irp/congress/2011_hr/newstart.pdf>, accessed 8 August 2012.

³Jeffrey G Lewis, ‘Minimum Deterrence’, New America Foundation, <http://www.newamerica.net/publications/articles/2008/minimum_deterrence_7552>, accessed 8 August 2012.

⁴Quoted in Philip Taubman, The Partnership: Five Cold Warriors and Their Quest to Ban the Bomb (New York: Harper Collins, 2012), p. 256.

⁵George P Shultz, William J Perry, Henry A Kissinger and Sam Nunn, ‘A World Free of Nuclear Weapons’, Wall Street Journal, 4 January 2007.

⁶Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett, presentation given to Carnegie Non-Proliferation Conference, Washington, DC, 25 June 2007, <http://www.nuclearsecurityproject.org/publications/beckett-a-world-free-of-nuclear-weapons>, accessed 8 August 2012.

⁷International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament, ‘Eliminating Nuclear Threats: A Practical Agenda for Global Policymakers’, December 2009.

⁸UN Department of Public Information (SC/9746), ‘Historic Summit of Security Council Pledges Support for Progress on Stalled Efforts to End Nuclear Weapons Proliferation’, 24 September 2009, <http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2009/sc9746.doc>, accessed 8 August 2012.

⁹For a discussion of possible ways to make progress on this issue, see George Perkovich, Malcolm Chalmers, Steve Pifer, Paul Schulte and Jaclyn Tandler, Looking Beyond the Chicago Summit: Nuclear Weapons in Europe and the Future of NATO, Carnegie Endowment, April 2012.

¹⁰Rekha Chakravarthi, ‘India & Nuclear Disarmament: Chasing a Dream’, CBRN South Asia Brief (No. 12, March 2009), <http://www.ipcs.org/pdf_file/issue/CBRNIB12-Rekha-Disarmament.pdf>, accessed 8 August 2012.

¹¹See Global Zero, <http://www.globalzero.org/sign-declaration>, accessed 8 August 2012.

¹²Philip Taubman, The Partnership, p. 256.

¹³William Walker, A Perpetual Menace: Nuclear Weapons and International Order (Abingdon: Routledge, 2012), p. 5.

¹⁴US Department of Defense, ‘Nuclear Posture Review Report 2010’, p. viii.

¹⁵Frederick Kempe, Berlin 1961: Kennedy, Khrushchev and the Most Dangerous Place on Earth (New York: Berkley Books, 2011), pp. 442–43.

¹⁶Ronald D Asmus, A Little War that Shook the World: Georgia, Russia, and the Future of the West (Basingstoke and New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009), as quoted in Gideon Rachman, ‘Did Dick Cheney Want to Start a War with Russia?’, Financial Times, 19 February 2010.

¹⁷Forrest E Morgan, ‘Dancing with the Bear: Managing Escalation in a Conflict with Russia’, IFRI Proliferation Papers (No. 40, Winter 2012), pp. 37–39.

¹⁸Michael Dobbs, One Minute to Midnight: Kennedy, Khrushchev and Castro on the Brink of Nuclear War (New York: Vintage Books, 2009), pp. 254–75.

¹⁹Interviews with former UK officials, 2011.

²⁰John G Hines, Ellis Mishulovich and John F Shull, Soviet Intentions 1965–1985. Vol. I: An Analytical Comparison of U.S-Soviet Assessments During the Cold War (McLean, VA: The BDM Corporation, 22 September, 1995), p. 44, cited in John A Battilega, ‘Soviet Views of Nuclear Warfare’, in Henry D Sokolski (ed.), Getting MAD: Nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction, Its Origins and Practice (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, 2004).

²¹See, for example, Soviet discussion of using nuclear weapons to oppose a US invasion of Cuba in Aleksandr Fursenko and Timothy Naftali, One Hell of a Gamble: Khrushchev, Castro and Kennedy, 1958–1964 (New York: W W Norton, 1997), pp. 240–43.

²²Igor Sutyagin, ‘Russian Non-Strategic Nuclear Potential: Developing a New Estimate’, RUSI Occasional Paper (forthcoming, 2012).

²³For a useful summary of the areas of disagreement on this, see James M Acton and Elbridge Colby, ‘Nuclear Weapons – Something We Can All Agree On’, thehill.com, 24 May 2012.

²⁴Avner Cohen, The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel's Bargain with the Bomb (New York: Columbia University Press, 2011), p. 78.

²⁵Peter Liberman, ‘The Rise and Fall of the South African Bomb’, International Security (Vol. 26, No. 2, Fall 2001), pp. 45–86.

²⁶Feroz Hassan Khan, ‘Minimum Deterrence: Pakistan's Dilemma’, in Malcolm Chalmers, Andrew Somerville and Andrea Berger (eds.), ‘Small Nuclear Forces: Five Perspectives’, RUSI Whitehall Report, 3–11, December 2011, p. 73.

²⁷For an insider's perspective of the interaction between force size and targeting requirements, see Jerry Miller, Stockpile: The Story Behind 10,000 Strategic Nuclear Weapons (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2010).

²⁸Keir A Lieber and Daryl G Press, ‘The Nukes We Need: Preserving the American Deterrent’, Foreign Affairs (November/December 2009). See also the discussion of this paper by Jan Lodal, James M Acton, Hans M Kristensen, Matthew McKinzie and Ivan Oelrich, ‘Second Strike: Is the US Nuclear Arsenal Outmoded’, Foreign Affairs (March/April 2010).

²⁹Michael S Gerson, ‘No First Use: The Next Step for US Nuclear Policy’, International Security (Vol. 35, No. 2, Fall 2010), p. 18.

³⁰Stephen I Schwartz, ‘Unaccountable: Exploring the Lack of Budgetary Transparency for U.S. Nuclear Security Spending’, Nuclear Threat Initiative, 5 January 2012, <http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/transparency-us-nuclear-security-budget/>, accessed 8 August 2012.

³¹US Department of Defense, ‘Fact Sheet: Increasing Transparency in the U.S. Nuclear Weapons Stockpile, May 2010’, <http://www.defense.gov/npr/docs/10-05-03_Fact_Sheet_US_Nuclear_Transparency_FINAL_w_Date.pdf>, accessed 8 August 2012.

³²Stephen I Schwartz with Deepti Choubey, ‘Nuclear Security Spending: Assessing Costs, Examining Priorities’, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 2009, p. 6.

³³A more recent study has estimated total spending on ‘strategic nuclear offensive forces’ in 2011 at $33 billion. This excludes other costs related to the ‘broader nuclear enterprise’, such as spending on missile defence, tactical nuclear weapons and environmental clean-up of former nuclear sites. See Russell Rumbaugh and Nathan Cohn, Resolving Ambiguity: Costing Nuclear Weapons (Washington, DC: The Henry L Stimson Center, June 2012).

³⁴Robert Kagan, ‘Why the World Needs America’, Wall Street Journal, 11 February 2012.

³⁵US Department of Defense, ‘Nuclear Posture Review Report 2010’, p. 30.

³⁶Robert S Norris and Hans M Kristensen, ‘Global Nuclear Weapons Inventories, 1945–2010’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Vol. 66, No. 4, July/August 2010), p. 78; Hans M Kristensen and Robert S Norris, ‘Russian Nuclear Forces, 2012’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Vol. 68, No. 2, March/April 2012), p. 88.

³⁷Dmitri Trenin, ‘Putin's National Security Vision’, Carnegie Endowment Commentary, 23 February 2012.

³⁸Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, ‘17 April 2012: World Military Spending Levels Out after 13 Years of Increases, Says SIPRI’, 17 April 2012.

³⁹Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, ‘17 April 2012: World Military Spending Levels Out after 13 Years of Increases, Says SIPRI’, 17 April 2012.

⁴⁰James Acton argues that rejection by the UK, France or China of ‘a treaty that formally enshrines inequality’ would make it ‘extremely unlikely’ for Russia and the United States to continue reductions. James M Acton, ‘Low Numbers: A Practical Path to Deep Reductions’, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 2011, p. 56. His point reinforces this paper's contention that alternatives to a formal binding limit would have to be found if mutual restraint at low numbers were to be made possible.

⁴¹James M Acton, Deterrence During Disarmament: Deep Nuclear Reductions and International Security, Adelphi Paper 417 (Abingdon: Routledge for IISS, 2011), p. 88.

⁴²James Wood Forsyth Jr, B Chance Saltzman, Gary Schaub Jr, ‘Remembrance of Things Past: The Enduring Value of Nuclear Weapons’, Strategic Studies Quarterly (Spring 2010), pp. 74–89.

⁴³For a discussion of this point, see Shashank Joshi, ‘Japan and the Bomb’, shashankjoshi.wordpress.com, 29 March 2012.

⁴⁴James M Acton, Deterrence During Disarmament, p. 88.

⁴⁵Michael S Gerson, The Sino-Soviet Border Conflict: Deterrence, Escalation and the Threat of Nuclear War in 1969 (Alexandria, VA: Center for Naval Analyses, November 2010).