II. Permanent Deterrence and the US Military Presence in Europe

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Notes

1 This chapter is adapted from a report published by the Atlantic Council in 2018. For further arguments and references, as well as concrete recommendations for an enhanced US force posture, see Alexander R Vershbow and Philip M Breedlove, ‘Permanent Deterrence: Enhancements to the US Military Presence in North Central Europe’, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security Issue Brief, Atlantic Council, December 2018.

2 Scott Boston et al., Assessing the Conventional Force Imbalance in Europe (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2018), <https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2402.html>, accessed 5 February 2020.

3 This goes hand in hand with a number of Kremlin decisions to ignore international treaty commitments, including its suspension of the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE) in 2007, violations of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), circumvention of Vienna Document guidelines on notification and observation of military exercises, and implementation issues and violations of the Open Skies Treaty (OST). See Gustav Gressel, ‘Under the Gun: Rearmament for Arms Control in Europe’, European Council on Foreign Relations, 28 November 2018, <https://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/under_the_gun_rearmament_for_arms_control_in_europe>, accessed 7 February 2020; Aaron Mehta, ‘US, Russia Remain at “Impasse” Over Open Skies Treaty Flights’, Defense News, 14 September 2018, <https://www.defensenews.com/air/2018/09/14/us-russia-remain-at-impasse-over-nuclear-treaty-flights/>, accessed 7 February 2020; Daniel Boffey, ‘NATO Accuses Russia of Blocking Observation of Massive War Game’, The Guardian, 6 September 2017; Congressional Research Service, ‘Russian Compliance with the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty: Background and Issues for Congress’, 7 December 2018, <https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R43832.pdf>, accessed 7 February 2020.

4 Russian Ministry of Defence, ‘Armed Forces Exercises’, <https://eng.mil.ru/en/mission/practice/all.htm>, accessed 25 January 2020.

5 Johan Norberg, ‘The Use of Russia’s Military in the Crimean Crisis’, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 13 March 2014, <https://carnegieendowment.org/2014/03/13/use-of-russia-s-military-in-crimean-crisis-pub-54949>, accessed 7 February 2020.

6 Raphael Cohen and Andrew Radin, ‘Russia’s Hostile Measures in Europe,’ RAND Corporation, 2019.

7 Alexander Vershbow, ‘A Strong NATO for a New Strategic Reality’, keynote address at the Foundation Institute for Strategic Studies, Krakow, 4 March 2016, <https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_128809.htm>, accessed 7 February 2020.

8 Kathleen H Hicks et al., Evaluating Future US Army Force Posture in Europe: Phase II Report (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, June 2016), p. 15.

9 Philip M Breedlove, ‘Statement of General Philip M. Breedlove’, Senate Armed Services Committee, 30 April 2015.

10 US Department of Defense, ‘European Deterrence Initiative: Department of Defense Budget Fiscal Year 2019’, February 2018, <https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2019/fy2019_EDI_JBook.pdf>, accessed 7 February 2020.

11 Alexander R Vershbow and Philip M Breedlove, Permanent Deterrence: Enhancements to the US Military Presence in North Central Europe (Washington, DC: Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council 2019), p. 26.

12 Ibid.

13 US Army Europe Public Affairs Office, ‘Fact Sheet: U.S. Army Europe’, 14 November 2018.

14 Vershbow and Breedlove, Permanent Deterrence, p. 27.

15 Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, ‘NATO’s Eastern Flank Seeks Increased Alliance Presence in Region’, 8 June 2018.

16 Ryan Browne, ‘US to Double Number of Marines in Norway Amid Russia Tensions’, CNN, 12 June 2018.

17 In April 2018, Poland submitted to the US a proposal to host, on a permanent basis, a US military division on Polish territory, and offered $2 billion to finance infrastructure for that deployment. See Alan Cowell, ‘Fort Trump? Poland Makes a Play for a U.S. Military Base', New York Times, 18 September 2018.

18 US Department of Defense, ‘Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America: Sharpening the American Military’s Competitive Edge’, 2018, pp. 4, 7.

19 NATO, ‘Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security Between NATO and the Russian Federation Signed in Paris, France’, May 1997, <https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_25468.htm>, accessed 18 January 2020.