VIII. Maintaining NATO’s Technological Edge

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Notes

1 Thomas Rid, ‘Cyber War Will Not Take Place’, Journal of Strategic Studies (Vol. 35, No. 1, 2012), pp. 5–32.

2 Alexander Klimburg, The Darkening Web: The War for Cyberspace (New York, NY: Penguin Press, 2017).

3 Lillian Ablon and Andy Bogart, Zero Days, Thousands of Nights: The Life and Times of Zero-Day Vulnerabilities and Their Exploits (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2017), pp. 65–72; Max Smeets, ‘A Matter of Time: On the Transitory Nature of Cyberweapons', Journal of Strategic Studies (Vol. 41, No. 1–2, 2018), pp. 6–32.

4 Michael E O’Hanlon, ‘Forecasting Change in Military Technology, 2020−2040', Brookings Institution, September 2018.

5 In the US Joint Publication 3-12 on cyberspace operations, ‘blue space’ refers to areas in cyberspace protected by the US, ‘red space’ refers to cyberspace owned or controlled by an adversary and ‘grey space’ refers to ‘all cyberspace that does not meet the description of either “blue” or “red”’. See US Department of Defense, ‘Joint Publication 3-12: Cyberspace Operations’, 8 June 2018, p. I-5.

6 Michael C Horowitz, ‘Artificial Intelligence, International Competition, and the Balance of Power', Texas National Security Review (Vol. 1, No. 3, May 2018), pp. 36–57.

7 Elsa B Kania, ‘Battlefield Singularity: Artificial Intelligence, Military Revolution, and China’s Future Military Power’, Center for a New American Security, 28 November 2017, p. 12.

8 F G Hoffman, ‘Will War’s Nature Change in the Seventh Military Revolution?', Parameters (Vol. 47, No. 4, Winter 2017−18), pp. 19–31.

9 Paul Scharre, Army of None: Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War, first edition (New York, NY: W W Norton & Company, 2018).

10 Center for a New American Security, ‘Proliferated Drones: The Drone Database', <http://drones.cnas.org/drones/>, accessed 5 November 2019; New America, ‘Who Has What: Countries with Armed Drones', <https://www.newamerica.org/in-depth/world-of-drones/3-who-has-what-countries-armed-drones/>, accessed 5 November 2019.

11 Andreas Krieg and Jean-Marc Rickli, ‘Surrogate Warfare: The Art of War in the 21^st Century?', Defence Studies (Vol. 18, No. 2, 2018), pp. 113–30.

12 Vincent Boulanin and Maaike Verbruggen, ‘Mapping the Development of Autonomy in Weapon Systems', SIPRI, November 2017, pp. 102–03; Office of the US Secretary of Defense, ‘Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2019', May 2019.

13 T X Hammes, ‘Technologies Converge and Power Diffuses: The Evolution of Small, Smart, and Cheap Weapons', Cato Institute, Policy Analysis No. 786, 27 January 2016.

14 Linda Dawson, War in Space: The Science and Technology Behind Our Next Theater of Conflict (New York, NY: Springer International Publishing, 2018), p. 13.

15 US Defense Intelligence Agency, ‘Challenges to Security in Space', January 2019, pp. 23–28; National Air and Space Intelligence Center, ‘Competing in Space', December 2018.

16 Steven Lee Myers and Zoe Mou, ‘“New Chapter” in Space Exploration as China Reaches Far Side of the Moon’, New York Times, 2 January 2019.

17 Kenneth Chang, ‘Why Everyone Wants to Go Back to the Moon’, New York Times, 12 July 2019.

18 Victor L Shammas and Tomas B Holen, ‘One Giant Leap for Capitalistkind: Private Enterprise in Outer Space', Palgrave Communications (Vol. 5, No. 10, 2019); US Department of Commerce, ‘Secretary Ross: “A Bright Future for U.S. Leadership of Space Commerce”', 21 February 2018.

19 James Vincent, ‘Putin Says the Nation That Leads in AI “Will Be the Ruler of the World”’, The Verge, 4 September 2017, <https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/4/16251226/russia-ai-putin-rule-the-world>, accessed 7 February 2020.

20 As quoted in the read-ahead package for the NATO-Industry Forum, Berlin, 12−13 November 2018, p. 10.

21 Kenneth Payne, Strategy, Evolution, and War: From Apes to Artificial Intelligence (Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2018); Christian Brose, ‘The New Revolution in Military Affairs: War’s Sci-Fi Future', Foreign Affairs, May/June 2019.

22 Elbridge Colby and Jonathan Solomon, ‘Facing Russia: Conventional Defence and Deterrence in Europe', Survival (Vol. 57, No. 6, November 2015), pp. 21–50.

23 See NATO Science and Technology Organization, ‘Empowering the Alliance’s Technological Edge: 2018 Highlights’, March 2019, <https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2019_09/20190905_190905-STO-highlights2018.pdf>, accessed 7 February 2020.

24 European Defence Agency, ‘The EU Capability Development Priorities’, 2018, pp. 6−7.

25 David G Perkins and James M Holmes, ‘Multidomain Battle: Converging Concepts Toward a Joint Solution', Joint Force Quarterly (Vol. 88, January 2018), pp. 54–57.

26 Luis Simón, ‘The “Third” US Offset Strategy and Europe’s “Anti-Access” Challenge', Journal of Strategic Studies (Vol. 39, No. 3, 2016), pp. 417–45.

27 Douglas Barrie et al., ‘Defending Europe: Scenario-Based Capability Requirements for NATO’s European Members’, International Institute for Strategic Studies, April 2019, p. 3.

28 F Stephen Larrabee et al., NATO and the Challenges of Austerity (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2012), p. ix.

29 Barrie et al., ‘Defending Europe’.

30 Jens Ringsmose and Sten Rynning, ‘Now for the Hard Part: NATO’s Strategic Adaptation to Russia', Survival (Vol. 59, No. 3, 2017), pp. 129–46.

31 Barrie et al., ‘Defending Europe’, p. 42.

32 On the dynamics of European military innovation in the context of NATO transformation, see Terry Terriff, Frans Osinga and Theo Farrell (eds), A Transformation Gap?: American Innovations and European Military Change (Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press, 2010).

33 António Guterres, ‘Address to the General Assembly’, 25 September 2018.

34 Amitai Etzioni and Oren Etzioni, ‘Pros and Cons of Autonomous Weapons Systems', Military Review, May 2017, pp. 71–81.

35 Keir A Lieber and Daryl G Press, ‘The New Era of Counterforce: Technological Change and the Future of Nuclear Deterrence', International Security (Vol. 41, No. 4, Spring 2017), pp. 9–49; Michael C Horowitz, ‘When Speed Kills: Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems, Deterrence and Stability', Journal of Strategic Studies (Vol. 42, No. 6, 2019), pp. 764–88; Jesse T Wasson and Christopher E Bluesteen, ‘Taking the Archers for Granted: Emerging Threats to Nuclear Weapon Delivery Systems', Defence Studies (Vol. 18, No. 4, October 2018), pp. 433–53.

36 See Timo Noetzel and Benjamin Schreer, ‘Does a Multi-Tier NATO Matter? The Atlantic Alliance and the Process of Strategic Change’, International Affairs (Vol. 85, No. 2, 2009), pp. 211–26.

37 Tomáš Valášek, ‘New Perspectives on Shared Security: NATO’s Next 70 Years’, Carnegie Europe, November 2019, p. 36.

38 See Williamson Murray and Allan Millett (eds), Military Innovation in the Interwar Period (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995), Chapters 7 and 8.

39 BibleGateway, ‘Proverbs 22:3’, <https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Proverbs+22%3A3&version=NIV>, accessed 20 January 2020.