Uncertainty and alternatives in technology assessment studies: tritium emissions from proposed fusion power reactors

Abstract

Technology assessment studies have to arrive at clear statements. This is especially difficult if the original research shows a broad range of alternatives as well as large uncertainties. How this problem is dealt with is shown for the case of estimating tritium emissions from proposed fusion power reactors and the radiological impact of normal operational losses as well as accidental releases.

The sources of uncertainty and range of alternatives are discussed and a comparison made of the ways they are being treated in various studies. In the process of transferring data from original work to policy papers there are several reasons for inadequate reduction of both uncertainties and range of alternatives. Suggestions are made to improve their representation.

Keywords:

• technology assessment
• uncertainty
• fusion power