Effects of dysphoria and induced negative mood on the processes underlying hindsight bias

ABSTRACT

Hindsight bias is the tendency to overestimate one’s prior knowledge of facts or events once the actual facts or events are known. Several theoretical frameworks suggest that affective states might influence hindsight bias. Nondysphoric participants (n = 123, BDI ≤ 13) in negative or neutral mood, and dysphoric participants (n = 19, BDI > 13) generated and recalled answers to difficult knowledge questions. All groups showed hindsight bias, that is, their recalled estimates were closer to the correct answer when this answer was shown at recall. Multinomial modelling revealed, however, that under dysphoria and induced negative mood different processes contributed to hindsight bias. Dysphoria, but not induced negative mood, was associated with a stronger reconstruction bias, compared with neutral mood. A recollection bias appeared in neutral, but neither in induced negative nor dysphoric mood. These findings highlight differences between the cognitive consequences of dysphoria and induced negative mood.

KEYWORDS:

• Hindsight bias
• memory
• judgement
• mood
• dysphoria

Acknowledgements

We thank Siegmund Switala for technical assistance, and Mandy Roheger and Laura Richter for help with data collection. We thank Thorsten Pachur for helpful comments on an earlier version of the manuscript.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. As per suggestion of a reviewer, we additionally analysed the data with a hierarchical MPT approach that takes parameter variability into account and simultaneously estimates model parameters as well as correlations between parameters (latent-trait approach, Klauer, 2010). Parameter estimates obtained with both approaches largely concur.

2. The MPT model can be reparameterised such that r′_E in the reparameterised model represents the difference r_C – r_E in the original model. The interaction can be tested by setting the r′_E parameter equal across groups.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft under grant number BA 3539/4-1. The authors declare that there are no financial interests or benefits.