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Abstract
The linkages between changing Mexican and Chinese market shares in US import markets and changes in Canadian market shares in those same markets is investigated using finely detailed US import data from 1996–2007. While lost Canadian market share was most frequent for product groups in the Low Skilled and Medium Skilled Blue Collar categories, the evidence was weakest for these same two categories that Mexico was a meaningful competitor displacing Canadian market share. Instead, product groups in the Agricultural, High Skilled, and Medium Skilled White Collar categories had outcomes most consistent with Mexico as a competitor to Canada in US import markets. Product groups in these same three categories also showed Canadian market share to be more at risk from rises in Mexican market share than from rises in Chinese market share.
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Notes
1. As most famously (infamously?) expressed during the 1992 US Presidential Campaign by independent candidate Ross Perot as the “Giant Sucking Sound” of jobs moving to Mexico.
2. See Globerman and Storer (Citation2008, Citation2009) for research on the impact of 9/11 border security on Canada–US trade.
3. See also Jennes (Citation1987), Cox (Citation1994), and Roland-Holst, Reinert, and Shiells (Citation1994).
4. See Kehoe and Kehoe (Citation1995) and Cox (Citation1994, Citation1995).
5. See Wise (2007) for a detailed review of the literature regarding NAFTA's impact on Mexico's economy.
6. Unfortunately, Canada was not included in the set of 34 nations for the study.
7. The data set was ended in 2007 to avoid introducing considerable noise into the analysis caused by the excessive volatility in trade flow patterns in 2008–2009 induced by the severe recession in the US and the large associated slowdown in the global economy.
8. Thanks are owed to a reviewer for this insight.