CHANGING CLIMATE AND PERMAFROST DISTRIBUTION IN THE SOVIET ARCTIC

Abstract

Anticipated global warming during the next century will produce many environmental changes, including widespread thawing of permafrost in the northern hemisphere. A nonstationary model of heat and water transport in a stratified medium was used in conjunction with results from a climate-change model to estimate the severity of permafrost degradation. Results suggest that the area of continuous permafrost in the USSR may be reduced by 15 to 20% over a 50-year period.