Abstract
When predicting the adverse effect(s) of chemical pollution on an exposed organism, a measurement of body residue is often considered a more accurate estimate of dose than those estimates derived from a solvent extraction or solid-phase microextraction of the polluted exposure medium. The magnitude of this perceived difference in accuracy, and thus the accuracy of the corresponding toxicity prediction, were investigated in the present two-phase study. In Phase I, an acute lethality response was correlated with dose estimates derived from body residue, solvent extraction, and SPME. In Phase II, acute lethality was predicted from Phase I data. The accuracy of Phase II toxicity predictions was determined by comparing predicted mortality to observed mortality. Although this study revealed that body residue indeed provided the most accurate prediction of toxicity, the margin of this comparatively greater accuracy suggests that alternative methods may provide equally viable dose estimates and, subsequently, equally viable toxicity predictions.