Abstract
The hypothesis tested was that it should be possible to predict maximum attainable level of anatomical maturity of Pinus sylvestris L. seeds, and thus the germination capacity, using only one x‐ray based sample value of anatomical potential (Ap) in combination with a time function. This sample should be taken after commencement and before cessation of embryo growth. Since this predictive model should be independent of temperature, it was validated by repeatedly collecting seeds from several localities with presumably different temperatures during ripening. Although the temperature sums differed between localities, the rate of increase in Ap was almost identical in August. According to multiple linear regression analysis, the highest coefficient of determination (0.81) was achieved if Ap values from collections made in August were used in the regression. The average absolute deviation for the different localities between actual and predicted maximum Ap was 2%, and the highest deviation 7.2%. Thus, it should be possible to make a good prediction of the maximum germination capacity as early as in August. The practical consequence of this is that cone collection and possible artificial ripening could be started very close to the optimal time. Furthermore, soil scarification could be done in seed tree stands before seedfall when high seed quality is predicted.
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