Population-based epidemiological projections of rheumatoid arthritis in Germany until 2040

Abstract

Objectives

Our aim was to conduct a population-based projection to estimate the number of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) cases in Germany until 2040.

Method

Data obtained from a report published in 2017 (doi:10.20364/VA-17.08) were used for future prediction analysis. The data were originally collected by the German Central Institute for Statutory Health Insurance. We used the illness–death model to estimate future numbers of RA cases, considering nine possible scenarios based on different incidence and mortality rates.

Results

In the baseline scenario, the number of women with RA is projected to increase by 417 000 cases and men by 179 000 cases by 2040, compared with 2015. Peak numbers of cases are concentrated in the 70–80-year-old age group, particularly among women. In the most favourable scenario (scenario 2), assuming a decreasing incidence, the total number of RA cases is projected to rise by 284 000 by 2040, reflecting a 38% relative increase from 2015 to 2040. The least favourable scenario (scenario 9), assuming an increasing incidence, projects a significant burden on the healthcare system. The total number of RA cases is expected to rise by 1.16 million by 2040, marking a substantial 158% relative increase from 2015 to 2040.

Conclusions

Our research emphasizes a discernible trend: with an ageing society, improving treatment effectiveness, and declining all-cause mortality, we anticipate a rise in the absolute numbers of RA cases in Germany in the coming years. Our models robustly support this viewpoint, underscoring impending challenges for healthcare systems. Addressing these challenges demands multifaceted interventions.

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the Chair for Medical Biometry and Epidemiology at the University of Witten/Herdecke, as well as the Hiller Research Center at the University Hospital Düsseldorf, Medical Faculty of Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany, for their support.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Consent for publication

Not applicable – our manuscript does not contain data from any individual person.

Data protection statement

Due to data protection laws in Germany, the data sets generated and/or analysed during the current study are not publicly available. German law prohibits the use of these data for purposes other than research. Access to the data is granted to qualified research institutions upon request at the Forschungdatenzentrum (FDZ) in accordance with §§303a, 303f of Sozialgesetzbuch (SGB) V. Details on the application process to obtain data access can be found on the website of the FDZ (in German) (https://www.forschungsdatenzentrum-gesundheit.de/das-fdz). Relevant laws pertaining to this matter are also available on the website (in German) (https://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/sgb_5/BJNR024820988.html#BJNR024820988BJNG008700308).

Ethics

All data sets used in this study were sourced from the aggregated published data. As the research did not use data from identifiable individuals, neither written informed consent nor ethical approval was required. All of the authors had full access to the study data set and statistical codes, and take responsibility for data protection protocols.

Authors’ contributions

Conception and study design: JW, SV, MS, and RB. Acquisition of data: JW and RB. Data management: JW and RB. Analysis and interpretation of data: JW, SV, MS, and RB. Drafting the manuscript: JW, SV, MS, and RB. Critical revision for important intellectual content and approval for submission: JW, SV, MS, and RB. All authors had full access to the study data set and take responsibility for the integrity of the data presented.

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/03009742.2024.2312693