AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACTS OF MONETARY POLICY ON SOUTH AFRICAN AGRICULTURE / 'n Ekonomiese analise van die impak van monetêre beleid op die Suid-Afrikaanse landbou

Abstract

Following world wide trends, closer integration of agriculture into the macroeconomy has exposed farmers to the effects of changes in interest rates, exchange rates and prices that are associated with changes in monetary policy. In South Africa, farmers are faced with persistently high inflation, fluctuating interest rates and declining rand exchange rate. A general equilibrium simultaneous equation model was constructed to analyse the impacts of monetary policy on South African agriculture. Annual data (1960–1987) were used to estimate equations representing the field crop, horticultural, livestock and manufacturing sectors, and the money and foreign exchange markets. The interest, inflation, and exchange rates were determined endogenously and key macrolinkages whereby the impacts of monetary policy are transmitted to agriculture were simulated. Due to insufficient degrees of freedom, the model was estimated by two-stage principal components. The estimated model was used to simulate the dynamic impacts of an expansionary monetary policy on agriculture. In the short run, this causes the real interest rate to fall, exchange rate to depreciate, and general level of prices to rise. Depreciation of the exchange rate and higher domestic inflation raise input prices. Increased cost effects of higher input prices outweigh the reduced cost effects of lower real interest rates causing real field crop and horticultural supply to decrease. Increased stock effects of lower real interest rates and increased cost effects of higher input costs impact negatively on livestock supply. The resultant decrease in agricultural supply causes commodity prices to rise which lowers real demand for agricultural products. The net effect is a decline in real agricultural income for the sectors modeled.

Uittreksel

In navolging van wêreldwye neigings, het hegter integrasie van die landbou makro-ekonomie, boere blootgestel aan die gevolge van vcran-deringe in rentekoerse, wisselkoerse en pryse wat saamhang met veranderinge in monetêre beleid. In Suid-Afrika word boere gekonfron-teer met voortgesette hot inflasie, wisselende rentekoerse en 'n dalende rand-wisselkoers. 'n Algemene ewewigsmodel van gelyktydige vergelykings is saamgestel om die impak van monetêrebeleid op die Suid-Afrikaanse landbou te analiseer. Jaardata (1960–1987) is gebruik vir die raming van vergelykings om die akkerbou-, tuinbou-, lewendehawe- en vervaardigingsektore en die geld- en buitelandse valutamarkte te verteenwoordig. Die rente, inflasie en wisselkoerse is endogenies vasgestel en sleutel-makroskakels waardeur wisselkoerse die impak van monetêre beleid na die landbou oorgedra is, is gesimuleer. Weens onvoldoende grade van vryheid, is die model beraam deur tweede-vlak hoofkomponente. Die geraamde model is gebruik om die dinamiese inwerkings van 'n uitbreidende monetêre beleid op die landbou te simuleer. In die kort termyn het die recle rentekoers laat daal, die wisselkoers laat depresieer, en algemene prysvlakke laat styg. Depresiasie van die wisselkoers en hoer plaaslike inflasie het insetkoste laat styg. Verhoogde koste-effekte van hoer insetpryse weeg swaarder as die verlaagde koste-effekte van laer recle rentekoers en lei tot 'n afname in akkerbou- en tuinboutoevoer. Verhoogde vee-effekte weens die laer reele rentekoerse en verhoogde koste-effekte van hoer insetkoste, het 'n negatiewe invloed op lewendehawe-toevcer. Die gevolglike afname in landbou-toevoer veroorsaak dat kommoditeitspryse styg wat weer die recle vraag na landbouprodukte laat daal. Die netto-effek is 'n afname in die recle landbou-inkomste vir die sektore in die model bestudeer.