ECONOMIC FACTORS AFFECTING HUMAN FERTILITY IN THE DEVELOPING AREAS OF SOUTH AFRICA: A POLICY PERSPECTIVE / Ekonomiese faktore wat die fertiliteit van mense in die ontwikkelende gebiede van Suid-Afrika belnvloed: 'n Beleidsperspektief.

Abstract

The World Bank has expressed concern over high population growth rates in sub-Saharan Africa. South Africa's annual population growth rate in the traditional sector is 3,5%. This study identifies economic factors affecting family size choice to provide policy makers with a strategy for reducing fertility. A neoclassical utility framework was used to analyse linkages between family size decisions and socio-economic variables. Household utility for “child services” and “standard of living” was maximised subject to the resource constraints of time, labour and income. A demand curve for children was specified within a simultaneous model of family decision making. A stratified sampling technique was used to collect household data from Ulundi and Ubombo in KwaZulu. One hundred and seventy five women in three equal occupational strata were interviewed. The simultaneous model was estimated by two-stage least squares regression analysis. Dummy dependent variables were estimated by probit analysis. Child education, women's opportunity cost of time and formal market participation were negatively related to fertility, reflecting substitution from numbers of children (time intensive goods) to fewer, more educated children(1ess time intensive) as opportunity costs rise. Child labour was positively related to fertility. Strategies to reduce population growth rates should therefore include improvements in women's education and employment opportunities to raise their time costs. and time saving devices to reduce demand for child labour.

Uittreksel

Die Wêreidbank het sy kommer uitgespreek oor die hoe bevolkingsgroeikoers in Afrika suid van die Sahara. Suid-Afrika se jaarlikse bevolkingsgroeikoers in die tradisionele sektor is 35%. Hierdie studie identifiseer ekonomiese faktore wat die keuse van gesinsgmttes belnvloed ten einde beleidmakers te voorsien van 'n strategie om fertiliteit te verlaag. Die Neo-klassieke utiliteitsraamwerk is gebruik om die koppeling tussen besluite oor gesinsgrootte en sosio-ekonomiese veranderlikes te analiseer. Huishoudelike utiliteitswaarde van “kinderdiens” en “lewenstandaard” is gemaksimeer ondemrpe aan die bronbeperkings van tyd, arbeid en inkomste. 'n Behoeftekuwe vir kinders is gespesifiseer binne die gepaardgaande model van gesinsbesluitneming. 'n Gestratifiseerde toetstegniek is gebruik om huishoudelike data uit Ulundi en Ubonibo in KwaZulu te verkry. Onderhoude is gevoer met een honderd vyf en sewentig vroue uit drie gelyke beroepslae. Die gelyklopende model is beraam deur die twee-stadium kleinste kwadrate regressieanaliese. Dummie-afhanklike veranderlikes is geskat deur “probit” analiese. Kinderopvoeding, Vroue sc geleentheidskoste van tyd en formele markdeelname was in negatiewe verhouding tot fertiliteit, en dit weerspieel vervanging van aantal kinders (tydsintensiewe ware) met minder, meer opgevoede kinders (minder tydsintensief) namate die geleentheidskoste styg. Kinderarbeid is in positiewe verhouding met fertiliteit. Strategiee om die bevolkingsgroeikoerse te verlaag, moet gevolglik verbetering van die vroue se opvoeding en indiensnemingsgeleenthede insluit ten einde hulle tydskoste te verhoog, en ook tydsbesparingsmiddele om die vraag na kinderarbeid te verminder.