SIKLIESE VARIASIE IN DIE RSA BEES- EN SKAAPVLEISBEDRYF

Abstract

The decreasing trend in farm prizes for beef and mutton, originating 1989, continued in 1990. These decreases represent the normal interaction between an increase in supply and a disproportionate increase in demand. Farmers' decisions three years ago to produce more beef and mutton because of increasing prices and improved fanning conditions, caused initial high prices because less animals were slaughtered. Producers increased herd sizes by decreasing the number of animals slaughtered, especially the number of female cattle. At present the industry is experiencing a typical post-herd building phase with significant cyclical lows in prices. Decreasing producer prices are stimulated by an inability of consumers to effectively react on decreasing prices because of harsh economic conditions, putting their spending ability under pressure. At the same time mutton producer prices are declining and more momentum is to the decrease in producer prices by the decrease in wool prices. Given the normal cyclical behaviour of the beef and mutton industries it can be expected that the current cyclical low in prices are to continue for at least a couple of years.

Uittreksel

Die daling in die produsentepryse van bees- en skaapvleis wat in 1989 begin het, is voortgesit in 1990. As sodanig verteenwoordig hierdie dalings in die pryse die normal interaksie tussen 'n toename in aanbod met 'n minder as proporsionele toename in die vraag na die produk. Produsente van bees- en skaapvleis se besluite drie jaar gelede om na aanleiding van stygende pryse en goeie landbouvooruit-sigte nieer te produseer, het aanvanklik tot geweldige prysstygings gelei omdat minder diere geslag is. Produsente het veral minder vroulike diere laat slag ten einde hulle kuddes te vergroot. Tans bevind die bedryf hom in 'n tipiese na-kuddeboufase waar minder vroulike diere teruggehou word en meer diere geslag word. Al is hierdie besluite van die produsente rasioneel ervaar die bedryf boonop in 1990 'n betekenisvolle sikliese afswaai in produsenteprys. Dalende produsentepryse in 1990 kry momentum omdat die verbruiker nie in staat is om positief te reageer op dalende produsente- en verbruikerspryse nie. Daarvoor is sy besteebare inkomste as gevolg van die huidige ekonomiese insinking te veel onder druk. Faktore wat verdere momentum verleen aan die dalendc tendens in die skaapvleispryse. is die daling in die wolpryse, as gevolg waarvan boere nou meer skape laat slag. Gegewe die normale sikliese patroon van die bees- en skaapvleisbedrywe, kan verwag word dat die huidige sikliese laag in pryse, nog vir 'n aantal jare kan voortduur.