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Abstract
This paper is the first empirical study of the factors affecting the demand for and supply of South African deciduous fruit exports. A simultaneous equations model of deciduous fruit export demand and supply was specified and estimated by Two Stage Least Squares using annual data for the period 1960—1990. Export demand was influenced by the world price (real) of deciduous fruit and real income of importing countries. Export supply was explained by the lagged relative price of deciduous fruit exports (ratio of net export realisation price to domestic price), lagged exports and random shocks in deciduous fruit supply (deviation of actual production from trend). Estimated price and income elasticities of export demand were high (-28.00 and 1.41 respectively). Export supply in the short run was price inelastic (0.07) and relatively less responsive to supply shocks. These results support a priori expectations that local deciduous fruit exporters are price takers and that export supply reacts sluggishly to changes in the relative price of exports. Real income growth in importing countries will markedly influence export performance.
Samevatting
Hierdie artikel verteenwoordig die eerste empiriese studie van die faktore wat die vraag na, en aanbod van, Suid-Afri-kaanse sagtevrugte-uitvoere beïnvloed. 'n Gelyktydige vergelykingsmodel van sagtevrugtevraag en -aanbod is deur middel van twee-stadium kleinste kwadrate gespesifiseer en beraarn aan die hand van jaarlikse data vir die tydperk 1960—1990. Uitvoervraag word beïnvloed deur die (reële) wêreldprys van sagtevrugte en reële inkomste van invoerlande. Uitvoeraanbod is verklaar deur die gesloerde uitvoer en stogastiese skokke in sagtevrugtevoorsiening. Geraarnde prys- en inkomste-elastisiteit van uitvoervraag was hoog (onderskeidelik −28.00 en 1.41). Uitvoeraanbod op kort termyn was onelasties (0,07) en betreklik minder gevoelig vir aanbodskokke. Hierdie resultate ondersteun a priori—verwagtinge dat plaaslike sagtevrugte-uitvoerders prysnemers is en dat uitvoeraanbod traag reageer op veranderinge in die relatiewe prys van uitvoere. Ekonomiese groei in invoerlande se reële inkomste sal uitvoerprestasie beduidend beïnvloed.