THE EFFECT OF INCOME ON THE MARKET FOR CARBOHYDRATES IN SOUTH AFRICA / Die effek van inkome op die koolhidraatmark in Suid Afrika

Abstract

Despite the importance of the carbohydrate market as a source of staple food for the majority of the South African population, very little statistical information is available on the subject as a basis for policy formulation. Research centred on the white maize industry. Results show that regional differences within the market for maize are of cardinal importance, making country-wide generalisations dangerous and a regional marketing strategy imperative. One of the most significant results for the strategic marketing of maize meal is that a single population estimate for income elasticity is inadequate, especially when 94% of maize meal is consumed by a single consumer group—the Black population. Indications are that for Blacks in South Africa, maize is a normal good if seen in a national context. Consequently, as incomes fall or as relative prices rise, less maize is consumed. This is supported by urban price elasticities. It is proposed that this could have had a substantial effect on maize consumption in the past and have important implications for the marketing of staple food in a new South Africa.

Uittreksel

Ten spyte van die belangrikheid van die koolhidraatmark as bron van stapelvoedsel vir die meerderheid van die Suid-Afrikaanse bevolking, is data wat as basis vir beleidsformulering kan dien beperk. Hierdie studie is toegespits op die witmieliemark. Die resultate toon dat belangrike streeksverskille in die mieliemark voorkom. Landwye veralgemening is gevaarlik en dit is van kardinale belang dat streeksverskille in bernarkingstrategieë in ag geneem moet word. Een van die mees betekenisvolle bevindings uit 'n strategiese bemarkingsoogpunt, is dat 'n enkele skatting van inkome-elastisiteit vir die totale bevolking onvoeldoende is—veral as een verbruikersgroep, naamlik die swart bevolkingsgroep, verantwoordelik is vir 94 persent van mieliemeelverbruik. Aanduidings is dat, gesien in 'n nasionale konteks, mielies 'n normale produk vir Swartes in Suid-Afrika is. Dit impliseer dat Minder mielies verbruik word namate inkome afneem, of relatiewe pryse toeneem. Laasgenoemde word deur stedelike prysclasrisiteite ondersteun. Daar word aangedui dat hierdie aspek 'n belangrike invloed op mielieverbruik in die verlede kon gehad het. Dit hou belangrike implikasies vir die bemarking van stapelvoedsel in 'n nuwe Suid-Afrika in.