EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION USING A LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL: A MONETARY APPROACH / Bepaling van die wisselkoers deur middel van 'n linere regressie model: 'n monetre benadering.

Abstract

The monetary approach to exchange rate determination has been criticised because of the lack of empirical evidence. In this research note, a linear regression equation was estimated according to the monetary approach to explain changes in the nominal United States dollar/rand exchange rate for the years 1960–1988. Results indicate that this exchange rate is determined by relative United States and South African money supplies, nominal interest rates and real incomes. The R_a ² value was 0.965 percent.

Uittreksel

Die monetêre benadering tot wisselkoersbepaling is gekritiseer omdat daar nie genoeg empiriese bewyse daarvoor is nie. In hierdie navorsingsnota is 'n lineêre regressiemodel ooreenstemmend met die monetêre benadering gebruik om veranderings in die nominale VSA dollar/rand wisselkoers vir die jare 1960 tot 1988 te verduidelik. Die resultate toon dat die wisselkoers deur die Yolgende faktore beïnvloed word: Die relatiewe aanbod van geld in die VSA en Suid Afrika, nominale rentekoerse en reële inkome. Die R_a ² waarde is 0.965 persent.