PRICE STABILISATION POLICIES: HAS THE MEAT SCHEME BENEFITED BEEF PRODUCERS IN SOUTH AFRICA? / Prysstabilisasiebeleid: Was dit tot voordeel van beesvleisprodusente in Suid-Afrika?

Abstract

Prices should be non-distortive signals for production and consumption. Deterministic price behaviour patterns (cycles) and rainfall cycles resulted in cyclical supply variation through a process of herd expansion/liquidation. This apparently promoted inefficient management strategies at farm level and distorted production and marketing of beef. Significant seven year supply cycles for beef were isolated and used to determine producers' supply response flexibilities to rainfall and price cycle variation. Multiple regression analysis with distributed lag models were used. Significant lagged supply responses indicate that price signals were distorted and aided the climatological inflexibilities of beef production. Nominal beef producer prices were not stabilised and the control measures, employed for this purpose, effectively reduced farmers' marketing opportunities and thereby increase their exposure to production, price, marketing and income risks. Controlled marketing of red meat failed to stabilise producer prices of beef or to promote the producers' interests.

Uittreksel

Pryse behoort te dien as seine vir produksie en verbruik. Deterministiese prysvariasie (siklusse) en reënvalsiklusse gee aanleiding tot sikliese aanbod deur kudde uitbreiding en vermindering. Gevolge hiervan is ondoeltreffende bestuurstrategieë op plaasvlak en oneffektiewe produksie en bemarking van beesvleis. Betekenisvolle sewe jaar beesvleis aanbodsiklusse is geisoleer en aangewend om die aanbod siklus reaksie se sensitiwiteit ten opsigte van reënval en pryse te bepaal. Meervoudige regressieanalise met verspreide sloerings is gebruik. Betekenisvolle gesloerde aanbod reaksie dui op verwronge prysseine wat die klimatologiese onplooibaarheid van beesvleisproduksie versterk. Beheermaatreëls wat gemik is op prysstabilisasie kon nie in die doel slaag nie, maar beperk produsente se bemarkingsgeleenthede en verhoog daardeur produsente se blootstelling aan produksie-, prys-, bemarkings- en inkome risiko's, Beheerde bemarking het daarin gefaal om pryse te stabiliseer en om produsente se belange te bevorder.