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Abstract
The Rotterdam model is used to estimate a demand system for South African (SA) beef, chicken, mutton and pork during 1971–1995 and identify the potential impacts on demand for these meat types of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between SA and the European Union. Conditional cross-price Slutsky elasticity estimates show that for a given 1% change in each meat price under an FTA, the beef price change would have the largest impact on consumption of the other meats. The net effect of the FTA would depend on the extent to which different meat prices fall if meat imports increase. Import competition may be felt particularly from poultry imports as most of SA beef imports are of a low quality.
Die Rotterdam model is gebruik om 'n vraagsisteem vir Suid-Afrikaanse (SA) bees-, hoender-, skaap- en varkvleis vir die 1971–1995 periode te skat en die potensiële impakte van 'n vryehandelsooreenkoms (VHO) tussen SA en die Europese Unie op die vraag na hierdie vleissoorte te identifiseer. Voorwaardelike beramings van kruiselingse pryselastisiteite toon dat vir 'n gegewe 1% verandering in elke vleisprys onder 'n VHO, die beesvleisverandering die grootste impak op die verbruik van die ander vleissoorte sal hê. Die netto-effek van die VHO sal afhang van die mate waartoe verskillende vleispryse sal val indien vleisinvoer toeneem. Invoermededinging mag ervaar word, veral van pluimvee-invoere aangesien meeste SA beesvleisinvoere van 'n lae gehalte is.
