DEMAND AND SUPPLY FACTORS IN THE EXPORT OF SOUTH AFRICAN FRESH ORANGES TO THE UNITED KINGDOM: 1976–1993 / VRAAG- EN AANBODFAKTORE IN DIE UITVOER VAN SUID-AFRIKAANSE VARSLEMOENE NA DIE VERENIGDE KONINKRYK: 1976–1993

Abstract

Two Stage Least Squares and principal component analysis were used to estimate the export demand and supply of South African (SA) fresh oranges in the United Kingdom (UK) during 1976–1993. Export demand was negatively related to the SA fresh oranger price relative to the price of fresh oranges from Israel, and positively related to lagged orange exports (consumer brand loyalty proxy). Export supply was positively related to lagged net export realisation price relative to domestic orange price, the SA fresh orange price in the UK relative to the SA fresh orange price in France, lagged exports (export orientation), and supply shocks. The relative price elasticity of export demand was inelastic in both the short- and long-run, indicating that Capespan International and other future exporters may need to diversify fresh orange exports to alternative export markets to increase real revenue. Long-run export supply was inelastic with respect to relative price, implying that if SA fresh orange exports are included in a Free Trade Agreement with the EU, they are unlikely to have a marked adverse affect on EU fresh orange producers.

Tweestadium kleinste kwadrate en hoofkomponentanalise is gebruik om die uitvoervraag en -aanbod van Suid-Afrikaanse (SA) vars lemoene in die Verenigde Koninkryk (VK) vir die periode 1976–1993 te skat. Uitvoervraag was negatief verwant aan die prys vna SA varslemoene relatief tot die prys van varslemoene uit Israel, en positief verwant aan gesloerde lemoenuitvoere (fopveranderlike vir verbruikers se handelsmerklojaliteit). Uitvoeraanbod was positief verwant tot die gesloerde netto uitvoerprys relatief tot plaaslike lemoenprys, die SA varslemoenprys in die VK relatief tot die SA varslemoenprys in Frankryk, gesloerde uitvoer (uitvoeroriëntasie) en aanbodskokke. Die relatiewe pryselastisiteit van uitvoervraag was onelasties oor beide die kort- en langtermyn; dit toon dat Capespan International en ander toekomstige uitvoerders dit nodig sal vind om hul varslemoenuitvoere na alternatiewe uitvoermarke te diversifiseer teneinde reële inkomste te verhoog. Die langtermyn uitvoeraanbod was onelasties teenoor relatiewe prys en dit impliseer dat indien SA varslemoenuitvoere by 'n vryehandelsooreenkoms met die EU ingesluit sou word, dit onwaarskynlik is dat dit 'n merkbare invloed op EU varslemoenprodusente sal hê.