The Diffusion of Military Intervention: Testing a Network Position Approach

Abstract

This study assesses the fruitfulness of applying network analysis to diffusion of interstate military conflict. Specifically, the network position approach is applied in a statistical analysis, using a new global dataset of interstate military interventions in conflict systems, 1945-1991. We find that the network position approach is consistently supported, whereas competing or complementary approaches are less empirically successful. The findings reported in the present study can be utilized to refine the results of previous studies. While these show that interstate conflict diffusion tends to occur among contiguous states, the network position approach is able to identify which of the contiguous states are most likely to become targets of diffusion.

Keywords:

• Diffusion
• Military Intervention
• Militarized Interstate Disputes
• Network Analysis
• Alliance
• Uncertainty