M.A.D., detente and peace: A hypothesis on the evolution of international conflicts and its mathematico‐deductive extension∗

The final draft of this article was prepared by A. Yaniv at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg, West Germany where he was a Visiting Fellow during 1978–1979.

Abstract

The critical question whether or not detente is a prologue to peace between the superpowers is seldom confronted with scientific rigour. The authors explore the hidden developmental set of assumptions which are built into the mainstream western view of the relations between deterence and detente and proceed to extrapolate these assumptions mathematically further. The results of the exercise suggest that detente will eventually lead to a stable peace but not before an indeterminate (probably long drawn out) process of rhythmical oscillation between several periods of detente and several periods of cold war.

Notes

The final draft of this article was prepared by A. Yaniv at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg, West Germany where he was a Visiting Fellow during 1978–1979.