Decentralising Fraud: New Models of Electoral Manipulation during the 2019 General Elections in Mozambique

Abstract

Based on observation of the 2019 legislative, presidential and provincial elections in Mozambique, this article uncovers and examines models applied by the Frelimo regime in manipulating elections. Through interviews with local actors involved in the management of the election process, as well as in producing electoral observation reports and conducting on-site observation for electoral procedures, the article shows that manipulation of the 2019 elections in Mozambique moved from institutional spaces, where it has traditionally occurred, to local spaces. The actors and the spaces used to materialise fraud were modified, thereby making the fraud ‘invisible’ to both election observers and even to many within opposition political parties. Through analysis of raw data collected from the 2019 elections, we suggest that understanding the technology and tools used for electoral manipulation in authoritarian regimes, particularly in Mozambique, necessitates a longer view of the voter registration process in its political and institutional context.

Keywords:

• Mozambique
• elections
• electoral fraud
• decentralisation
• authoritarian regimes

Notes

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11 A. Schedler, ‘The Menu of Manipulation’, Journal of Democracy, 13, 2 (2002), pp. 36–50; A. Schedler, ‘The Nested Game of Democratization by Elections’, International Political Science Review, 23, 1 (2002), pp. 103–22.

12 Pitcher, ‘Mozambique elections 2019’; A. Boutaleb, ‘Quand l’Élection (Re)devient un Plébiscite: La Restauration Autoritaire à l’Aune du Leadership Politique en Égypte’, Politique Africaine, 146, 2 (2017), pp. 29–48; A. Allal and M. Vannetzel, ‘Des Lendemains qui Déchantent? Pour une Sociologie des Moments de Restauration’, Politique Africaine, 146, 2 (2017), pp. 5–28.

13 S. Lindberg, Democracy and Elections in Africa (Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press, 2006).

14 N. Cheeseman, Democracy in Africa: Successes, Failures, and the Struggle for Political Reform (New York, Cambridge University Press, 2015).

15 N. Cheeseman and B. Klaas, How to Rig an Election (New Haven & London, Yale University Press, 2018); T. Bierschenk, ‘The Local Appropriation of Democracy: An Analysis of the Municipal Elections in Parakou, Republic of Benin, 2002–03’, The Journal of Modern African Studies, 44, 4 (2006), pp. 543–71; L. Wantchekon, ‘Clientelism and Voting Behavior: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Benin’, World Politics, 55, 3 (2003), pp. 399–422; P. Yengo, ‘La Fraude Électoral Démocratique’, Politique Africaine, 85, 1 (2002), pp. 108–09.

16 T. James, Elite Statecraft and Election Administration: Bending the Rules of the Game? (New York, Palgrave Macmillan, 2012).

17 According to Afrobarometer surveys, Mozambicans’ confidence levels in the electoral management bodies reduced from 72 per cent in 2005/2006 to 48 per cent in 2014/2015. P. Penar, R. Aiko, T. Bentley and K. Han, ‘Election Quality, Public Trust are Central Issues for Africa’s Upcoming Contests’, Afrobarometer Policy Paper 35 (Accra, Afrobarometer, 2016), p. 7.

18 D.M. Rosário, ‘Órgãos de Administração Eleitoral em Moçambique: Entre a (Im)parcialidade, (In)dependência e a Procura de Transparência nas Eleições “Competitivas” em Tempos de Regimes Híbridos, 1994–2019’, in D.M. Rosario, E. Guambe and E. de Salema (eds), Democracia Multipartidária em Moçambique (Maputo, EISA, 2020), pp. 131–50.

19 See Deutsche Welle, ‘Cronologia do Conflito em Moçambique (1974–2014)’, available at https://www.dw.com/pt-002/momentos-de-instabilidade-pol%C3%ADtica-em-mo%C3%A7ambique-uma-cronologia/a-16912568, retrieved 28 May 2023;‘O Sucesso das Eleições Locais Depende Apenas da CNE ’, Notícias (20 February 2013), p. 5.

20 See A. Vines, As Perspectivas de um Acordo Sustentável entre as Elites em Moçambique: à Terceira Vez? (London, Chatham House, Africa Programme, 2019), available at www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/2019-09-04-ElitePerspectivesMozambique-Portuguese.pdf, retrieved 28 May 2023; ‘Parlamento Aprova Revisão da Lei Eleitoral para Silenciar Armas’, O País, Maputo, 24 February 2014, p. 3.

21 Law 9/2014 of 12 March, National Gazette, 1st series, No. 21, Supplement. The constitution of this CNE followed a non-formalised political settlement between the elites of Renamo and Frelimo during the 2014 negotiation process.

22 M. Bratton, ‘Civil Society and Political Transition in Africa’, IDR Reports, 11, 6 (1994).

23 The National Commission for Elections (CNE) and the Technical Secretariat for Electoral Administration (STAE) operate at the central level, and the Provincial Elections Commission (provincial STAE) and the District Election Commission (district STAE) function at local level.

24 Deliberation 5/CNE/2017 of May 25, 2017, regarding the election and appointment of members of the provincial election commissions, National Gazette, 1st series, No. 81, Supplement.

25 Interview with A. de Paula, Nampula, Programme Officer at Solidariedade Moçambique, a local civil society organisation, 26 February 2020. All interviews cited were conducted by the authors of the article, except where otherwise indicated. See also ‘Empossados Membros das Comissões Provinciais de Eleições que inclui Sociedade (prouco) Civil’, Verdade, (5 June 2017), p. 13, available at https://verdade.co.mz/empossados-membros-das-comissoes-provinciais-de-eleicoes-que-inclui-sociedade-pouco-civil/, retrieved 28 May 2023.

26 Interview with F. Rapoio, member of the Provincial Election Commission in Zambézia, Quelimane, 27 January 2020.

27 Interview with F. Mazanga, CNE member, Maputo, 5 February 2020.

28 J. Hanlon, ‘Integridade Eleitoral em Moçambique: Uma Perspectiva Política e Histórica’, in D.M. Rosário, E. Guambe and E. de Salema (eds), Democracia Multipartidária em Moçambique (Maputo, EISA, 2020), pp. 151–70.

29 Law 9/2014 of 12 March amends and republishes Law No 6/2013, of 22 February, which establishes the functions, composition, organisation, competences and functioning of the National Elections Commissions; National Gazette, 1st series, No. 21, Supplement.

30 Interview with J. António, worker at STAE-provincial, Nampula, 18 January 2020.

31 J. Hanlon, ‘Integridade Eleitoral em Moçambique: Uma Perspectiva Política e Histórica’, in D.M. Rosário, E. Guambe and E. de Salema (eds), Democracia Multipartidária em Moçambique (Maputo, EISA, 2020), pp. 151–70.

32 L. de Brito, Cartografia Eleitoral de Moçambique – 1994 (Maputo, Livraria Universitária, 2000).

33 S. Lutxeco, ‘Moçambique: Renamo “Conforma-se” com a Data para o Arranque do Recenseamento Eleitoral’, Zambeze, Maputo, 22 March 2018, p. 6., available at http://www.dw.com/pt-002/moçambique-renamo-conforma-se-com-a-data-para-o-arranque-do-recenseamento-eleitoral/a-48263445, retrieved 19 November 2023.

34 Decree No. 79/2018, ‘Sets the Voter Registration Period in Districts without Local Authorities and Abroad, and Updates the Census in Districts with Local Authorities’, National Gazette, 1st series, No. 12, Supplement.

35 CNE/STAE, ‘15.6 Million Potential Voters, Out of Nearly 27 Million Mozambicans’, report (Maputo, CNE/STAE, 2018).

36 Staff reporter, ‘Renamo Contesta Data para o Arranque do Recenseamento Eleitoral’, Notícias, 15 April 2020, p. 2.

37 S. Habibe, S. Forquilha and J. Pereira, ‘Radicalização Islâmica no Norte de Moçambique. O Caso de Mocímboa da Praia’, Caderno do IESE, 17 (2019), available at https://www.iese.ac.mz/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/cadernos_17.pdf, retrieved 19 November 2023.

38 STAE, ‘Relatório Balanço do Recenseamento Eleitoral de 2019 em Moçambique’, unpublished report (Maputo, STAE, 2019).

39 D.M. Rosário, ‘Da Anatomia do Recenseamento Eleitoral. Uma Análise a Partir da Distribuição das Brigadas de Recenseamento Eleitoral para as Eleições de 2019’, Centros de Recursos Eleitorais do Eisa, 4, 13 May 2019, EISA newsletter, Maputo, available at https://www5.open.ac.uk/technology/mozambique/sites/www.open.ac.uk.technology.mozambique/files/files/Newsletter%204%20CRE%20EISA%20Moz%2013_05_2019.pdf, retrieved 30 november 2023.

40 Interview with A. Gulambondo, STAE worker in Manica province, Chimoio, March 2021.

41 Ibid.

42 Interview with M. Zacarias, STAE worker in Nampula, Nampula, February 2020.

43 Press conference with STAE technicians and CDE members from the Gorongosa district, Sofala, March 2021.

44 Staff reporter, ‘A Cinco Dias do Fim do Recenseamento, Milhares de Eleitores Desesperam’, Diário da Zambézia, Maputo, 26 May 2019, p. 12.

45 A. Francisco, ‘Se a Estatística não Mente, Porque Há Quem Teime em Usá-la para Manipular o Processo Eleitoral?’, Report 115 (Maputo, Informação sobre Desenvolvimento, Instituições e Análise Social [IdeIAS], 26 July 2019), available at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339068905_Se_a_Estatistica_nao_Mente_Porque_Ha_Quem_Teime_em_Usa-la_para_Manipular_o_Processo_Eleitoral, retrieved 6 January 2023; A. Francisco, ‘Manipulação Estatística Exclui Cerca de 700 Mil Potenciais Eleitores em Três Províncias do Centro e Norte e Acrescenta Cerca de 600 mil nas Províncias do Sul’, Eleições ADS, 1, 6, 2 June 2019, available at https://clubofmozambique.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Boletim_ADS_Eleicoes_edicao_6.pdf, retrieved 11 April 2023.

46 Staff reporter, ‘STAE Admite que Vai Falhar Metas do Recenseamento Eleitoral’, O Pais, Maputo, 12 June 2019, p. 6.

47 A. Balate, director of the Bureau of Censuses and Surveys of the National Statistical Institute, interview with STV, Maputo, 16 July 2019.

48 Staff reporter, ‘As “Tabelas do Bartolomeu” que Deram Vitória à Frelimo e a Nyusi na CNE’, Canal de Moçambique, Maputo, 31 October 2019, p. 2.

49 Staff reporter, ‘STAE Admite que Vai Falhar Metas do Recenseamento Eleitoral’, O Pais, 12 June 2019, p. 6.

50 E. Guambe and D.M. Rosário, ‘Eleições e Insurgência em Cabo Delgado’ (unpublished paper, Maputo, 2020).

51 Interview with G. Mahalute, STAE supervisor in Cabo Delgado, Pemba, November 2019.

52 Law 9/2014 of March 12, amends and republishes Law No 6/2013, of 22 February, which establishes the functions, composition, organisation, competences and functioning of the National Elections Commissions. See National Gazette, 1st. series, No. 21, Supplement.

53 In all state institutions there exist party cells which are responsible, in the time of elections, for proposing loyal public servants to the STAE to chair the polling stations. These must be the most loyal so as not to betray the patria, or nation; see Partido Frelimo, ‘Secretariado do Comité Provincial da Zambézia, Instrução 34/2019 de 10 de Setembro de 2019’, (Quelimane 2019); Solidariedade Moçambique, Relatório Final do Processo Eleitoral de 2019 em Nampula (Nampula, Solidariedade Moçambique, 2020).

54 Interview with A. Wache, an electoral observer for the Pressão Nacional de Direitos Humanos, Marromeu, December 2019.

55 Electoral Institute of Southern Africa (EISA), Relatório Preliminar do Processo de Contagem dos Resultados Paralelos nas Eleições Presidenciais de 2019 (Maputo, EISA, November 2020).

56 Ibid.

57 CDD/Igreja Católica, Relatório da Observação do Processo Eleitoral de 2019 em Tete (Tete, CDD, November 2019).

58 Interview with A. Alfredo, teacher at Nampula secondary school, Nampula, October 2019.

59 Interview with Paulo Cuinica, member of the National Electoral Commission, Maputo, June 2019. EISA, Relatório Preliminar da Votação e da Contagem Paralela (Maputo, EISA, October 2019).

60 Ibid.

61 União Europeia: Missão de Observação Eleitoral, Moçambique 2019, Relatório Final: Eleições Gerais e das Assembleias Provinciais de 15 de outubro de 2019 (Maputo, European Union, 2020), p. 20, available at https://www.eeas.europa.eu/sites/default/files/eueom_moz2019_relatorio_final_pt.pdf, retrieved 30 November 2023.

62 Conselho Constitucional, judgment No. 25/CC/2019 of December 23rd, ‘Concerning the Validation and Proclamation of the Results of the Presidential, Legislative and Provincial Assemblies Elections, held on October 15th, 2019’, available at http://www.constitucional.org.mz/Jurisprudencia/25-CC-2019, retrieved 6 January 2023.

63 Ibid.

64 Interview with Father Albano of the Episcopal Commission for Justice and Peace, Catholic Church/CDD (Quelimane February 2021).

65 Article 77, Law 8/2013 of 27 February, National Gazette, 1st series, No. 17, Supplement.

66 Group interview with Catholic Church observers, Tete, November 2019.

67 EISA, Relatório Final de Observação Eleitoral e de Contagem Paralela (Maputo, EISA, November 2019).

68 Interview with S. Alberto, Catholic Church electoral co-ordinator in Sofala province, Beira, December 2019.

69 Staff reporter, ‘As “As Tabelas de Bartolomeu” que Deram Vitória à Frelimo e Nyusi na CNE’, Canal de Moçambique, 31 October 2019, p. 5.

70 Relatório da Observação da Votação na Província de Nampula (Nampula, Solidariedade Moçambique, November 2019).

71 Data extracted from Popola, the results aggregation software used by the Electoral Observation Platform.

72 Interview with T. Lourenço, MDM political delegate in Nampula, Nampula, January 2020.

73 Centro de Democracia e Desenvolvimento: Comissão Episcopal de Justiça e Paz, Relatório da Observação da Votação (Maputo, CDD, October 2019); Relatório Preliminar da Observação da Votação na Província de Nampula (Nampula, Solidariedade Moçambique, October 2019).

74 Interview with C. Mamudo, Catholic Church observer, Nacala Porto, November 2019.

75 Staff reporter, ‘Um Distrito, um Hospital: 90 Distritos Vão Beneficiar de Hospitais Construídos de Raiz’, O País, 29 November 2019, p. 9.

76 Centro e Integridade Pública (CIP), ‘Renamo diz que “violência total” nas eleições viola acordo de paz e exige anulação das eleições’, Boletim do Processo Político em Moçambique (Maputo, CIP, 29 November 2019), available at https://www.cipeleicoes.org/renamo-diz-que-violencia/, retrieved 6 January 2023.

77 L. Mabunda, ‘O Papel da Polícia na Prevenção da Violência Eleitoral? O Caso das Eleições Autárquicas de 2013 nos Municípios de Quelimane e Chókwè’ (Honours thesis, Eduardo Mondlane University, 2016).

78 S. Chichava, ‘Uma Província “Rebelde”. O Significado do Voto Zambeziano a Favor da Renamo’, Conferência Inaugural do IESE “Desafios para a investigação social e económica em Moçambique”’, Maputo, IESE, 19 September 2007, available at https://www.iese.ac.mz/∼ieseacmz/lib/publication/Chichava,Sergio_UmaProvinciaRebelde.pdf, retrieved 6 January 2023.

79 CDD/Igreja Católica, Relatório da Campanha Eleitoral para as Eleições de 2019 na Província da Zambézia, (Quelimane, CDD, October 2019).

80 Solidariedade Moçambique, Relatório Final da Campanha Eleitoral: Eleições Gerais de 2019 (Nampula, Solidariedade Moçambique, October 2019).

81 Interview with G. Mabunda, electoral observer, Chokwé, January 2020.

82 Centro de Aprendizagem e Capacitação da Sociedade Civil (CESC), Relatório Diário da Observação da Campanha Eleitoral na Província de Gaza (Xai-Xai, CESC, 10 October 2019).

83 Interview with S. Ernesto, Catholic Church observer in Tete province, Tete, October 2019.

84 Interview with Q. Guirrengane, national representative of New Democracy, Maputo, January 2020.

85 Interview with Father Raciel, co-ordinator of the Catholic Church Observers in Niassa, Lichinga, November 2019.

86 União Europeia: Missão de Observação Eleitoral, Moçambique 2019, available at https://www.eeas.europa.eu/sites/default/files/eueom_moz2019_relatorio_final_pt.pdf, retrieved 11 April 2023, p. 34.

87 See also SADC, Preliminary Statement to the 15 October 2019 Presidential, Legislative and Provincial Election in Mozambique (Maputo, SADC, 17 October 2019), available at https://www.sadc.int/sites/default/files/2021-06/SADC_Preliminary_Statement_for_2019_Mozambique_Elections_English.pdf, retrieved 6 January 2023; African Union, African Union Observation Mission to the 15 October 2019 General Election in the Republic of Mozambique, Preliminary Statement (Maputo, African Union, 17 October 2019) available at https://au.int/en/pressreleases/20191017/preliminary-statement-african-union-election-observation-mission-15-october, retrieved 6 January 2023; Commonwealth, Preliminary Statement: Mozambique General Election 2019 (Maputo, the Commonwealth, 15 October 2019), available at https://production-new-commonwealth-files.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/documents/Mozambique%20Preliminary%20Statement_17.10.19%20version%204.pdf, retrieved 6 January 2023.

88 CDD-CEJP, Relatório da Observação da Votação na Província de Niassa (Lichinga, CDD, 20 November 2019)

89 CDD-CEJP, Relatório da Observação da Votação na Província de Sofala (Beira, CDD, 31 October 2019).

90 Public intervention by Sanchez Benedetto, Ambassador of the European Union in Mozambique, during the press conference for the publication of the European Union Observation Report Mission, Maputo, Southern Sun Hotel, 12 February 2020.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Domingos Manuel do Rosário

Domingos Manuel do RosÁrio Associate Professor, Department of Political Science and Public Administration, Avenue Julius Nyerere 3453, Campus Principal, PO Box 257, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo, Mozambique. Email: [email protected] https://orcid.org/0009-0009-6915-479X

Egídio Guambe

Egídio Guambe Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science and Public Administration, Avenue Julius Nyerere 3453, Campus Principal, PO Box 257, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo, Mozambique. Email: [email protected] https://orcid.org/0009-0004-3675-8195