Probabilistic and deterministic approaches to estimation of non-carcinogenic human health risk due to heavy metals in groundwater resources of torbat heydariyeh, southeastern of Iran

ABSTRACT

Water, as the primary human needs, play a vital role in all aspects of our life, such as social environment, production, the economy, food security, and politics. In the present investigation, Heavy Metals (HM) concentrations including Cr, Pb, and Cd, have been ascertained in drinking water resources. Besides, point estimation using Hazard Quotient (HQ) and Hazard Index (HI) formula and sensitivity analysis (SA) using the Monte Carlo Simulation technique, by 10,000 repetitions in Oracle Crystal Ball®, were applied to demonstrate the non-carcinogenic effects of HMs on different exposed populations (Infant, children, teenagers, and adults groups). According to the results, the concentrations of Cr, Pb, and Cd in water resources ranged from 2.2 to 173.7 µg/L, 0.5 to 10 µg/L, and 0.2 to 0.9 µg/L, respectively. The results also showed that HI values were in the order of Pb>Cd >Cr. The results of SA, to determine the most effective parameter in increasing non-carcinogenic risk, showed that the concentration parameter of studied HMs had the most effect on increasing sensitivity in the four studied exposed groups.

KEYWORDS:

• Heavy metals
• health risk assessment
• hazard quotient
• monte Carlo Simulation
• sensitivity analysis
• uncertainty analysis
• groundwater resources
• chromium

Acknowledgments

The author would like to thanks the financial support of NIMAD from this research as Grant number 976889.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by NIMAD grant with official code number 976889 by the Ministry of Health, Iran.