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Abstract
Recent literature has aimed to “deconstruct” the notion of a “Sino-Indian rivalry” in Myanmar. The argument is that China's leverage in Myanmar far outweighs India's, and that the Tatmadaw nevertheless prevents either country's manipulation of Myanmar. In contrast this article argues that the idea of a “Sino-Indian Great Game” still marks the Indian debate, thinking and policy on Myanmar. China's continued rise will remain a main driver behind India's Myanmar policy, and Myanmar will remain geostrategic relevant to India.
The article describes the historical legacy of India's relationship with Myanmar, discusses the role of China in Indian Myanmar policies, and examines the effects of Myanmar's democratization process. While the Myanmar playing field has changed, Indian perceptions of a “Sino-Indian Great Game” are lasting.
Notes
1. See Renaud Egreteau and Larry Jagan, Soldiers and Diplomacy in Burma. Understanding the Foreign Relations of the Burmese Praetorian State. Singapore: NUS Press, 2013, and Renaud Egreteau, ‘India and China Vying for Influence in Burma – A New Assessment'. India Review Vol. 7. Issue 1 (2008): 38–72.
2. Burma/Myanmar's military.
3. Renaud Egreteau, ‘India's Ambitions in Burma: More Frustration Than Success?’ Asian Survey Vol. XLVII. Issue 6 (November/December 2008): 936–957.
4. Government of India, Ministry of External Affairs, ‘India-Myanmar Relations', December 2014. Accessible via http://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/India-Myanmar_Relations.pdf.
5. Rajiv Bhatia, ‘Myanmar-India Relations: The Way Forward'. Indian Foreign Affairs Journal Vol. 6. Issue 3 (July-September 2011): 315–326.
6. John Garver, Protracted Contest. Sino-Indian Rivalry in the Twentieth Century. Seattle: University of Washington Press, 2001, p. 251.
7. Renaud Egreteau, Wooing the Generals. India's New Burma Policy. New Delhi: Authorspress, 2003, p. 31.
8. See for example Egreteau, Wooing the Generals, p. 33, and Thin Thin Aung and Soe Myint, ‘India-Burma Relations', in Challenges to Democratization in Burma – Perspectives on Multilateral and Bilateral Responses. Stockholm: International IDEA, 2001, p. 87.
9. Egreteau and Jagan, Soldiers and Diplomacy in Burma, p. 92.
10. ‘Treaty of Friendship between India and the Union of Burma,’ 7 July 1951. Accessible via http://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/6645/Treaty±of±Peace±and±Friendship.
11. Egreteau and Jagan, Soldiers and Diplomacy, pp. 92–95.
12. Uma Shankar Singh, Burma and India (1948-1962). A Study in the Foreign Policies of Burma and India and Burma's Policy Towards India. New Delhi: Oxford & IBH Publishing, 1979, p. 70.
13. Egreteau, Wooing the Generals, p. 30. For a contemporary analysis of Burma's early post-independence foreign policy, see Maung Maung, Burma in the Family of Nations. Amsterdam: Djambatan, 1956.
14. Egreteau and Jagan, Soldiers and Diplomacy, p. 89.
15. The five principles of peaceful co-existence were first set out in the preamble of the ‘Agreement (with exchange of notes) on trade and intercourse between Tibet Region of China and India', signed 29 April 1954. Accessible via https://treaties.un.org/doc/publication/unts/volume%20299/v299.pdf.
16. See transcripts of conversations between Nehru and Zhou in Delhi, June 1954, from V.K. Krishna Menon Papers, Nehru Memorial Museum and Library. Accessible via http://www.claudearpi.net/maintenance/uploaded_pics/195406VisitZhouinDelhi.pdf.
17. See the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Government of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar, ‘Foreign Policy: The Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence'. Accessible via http://www.mofa.gov.mm/foreignpolicy/fiveprinciples.html.
18. Odd Arne Westad, The Global Cold War. Third World Interventions and the Making of Our Times. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007, p. 99. The Panchsheel principles were incorporated into the Bandung conference's ‘Declaration on promotion of world peace and co-operation’, and in December 1957 the UN adopted them as a code of conduct in international relations.
19. Garver, Protracted Contest, pp. 253–254, Aung and Myint, ‘India-Burma Relations', p. 91.
20. Egreteau and Jagan, Soldiers and Diplomacy, p. 93.
21. Garver, Protracted Contest, p. 251.
22. Amit Singh, ‘Emerging Trends in India-Myanmar relations'. Maritime Affairs: Journal of the national Maritime Foundation of India Vol. 8. Issue 2 (2012): 29.
23. Singh, Burma and India, p. 61. This was in line with Nehru's general opinion that Indians who had moved abroad should assimilate into their host countries. See for example Marie C. Lall, India's Missed Opportunity: India's Relationship with the Non-Resident Indians. Aldershot: Ashgate, 2001.
24. Aung and Myint, ‘India-Burma Relations’, p. 89.
25. For the most recent and thorough analysis of the Tatmadaw’s influence on Burma/Myanmar's foreign policy since the late 1940s, see Egreteau and Jagan, Soldiers and Diplomacy.
26. Singh, ‘Emerging Trends in India-Myanmar relations’, p. 31.
27. Garver, Protracted Contest, pp. 254–258.
28. David I. Steinberg and Hongwei Fan, Modern China-Myanmar Relations: Dilemmas of Mutual Dependence. Copenhagen: NIAS Press, 2012, p. 139.
29. Garver, Protracted Contest, p. 254.
30. Renaud Egreteau, ‘Burmese Indians in contemporary Burma: heritage, influence, and perceptions since 1988'. Asian Ethnicity Vol. 12. Issue 1 (February 2011): 33–54.
31. Her children Aung San Suu Kyi and Aung San Oo became friends with Indira Gandhi's sons Sanjay and Rajiv Gandhi. See for example Egreteau, Wooing the Generals, p. 33, and Aung and Myint, ‘India-Burma Relations’, p. 87.
32. The 1967 ‘Boundary Agreement between the Government of India and the Government of Burma’, accessible via The Commonwealth Legal Information Institute, http://www.commonlii.org/in/other/treaties/INTSer/1967/3.html.
33. Egreteau, Wooing the Generals, p. 36.
34. Steinberg and Hongwei Fan, Modern China-Myanmar Relations, p. 93–106; Egreteau and Jagan, Soldiers and Diplomacy, p. 126.
35. Egreteau and Jagan, Soldiers and Diplomacy, p. 115.
36. Garver, Protracted Contest, pp. 256–257.
37. Bhatia, ‘Myanmar-India relations: The Way Forward’, p. 317.
38. Garver, Protracted Contest, pp. 260–261.
39. Author's conversation with Ambassador Rajiv Bhatia, New Delhi, April 2014; see also Bhatia, ‘Myanmar-India relations: The Way Forward’, p. 318.
40. Bibhu Prasad Routray, ‘India-Myanmar Relations: Triumph of Pragmatism'. Jindal Journal of International Affairs Vol. 1. Issue 1 (October 2012): 303.
41. J.N. Dixit, ‘Road to Mandalay'. The Telegraph, March 22, 2000. http://www.telegraphindia.com/archives/archive.html.
42. J. Mohan Malik, ‘Myanmar's Role in Regional Security: Pawn or Pivot?’ Contemporary Southeast Asia Vol. 19. Issue 1 (June 1997): 63.
43. Author's conversation with Ambassador Rajiv Bhatia, New Delhi, April 2014.
44. David I. Steinberg, Burma/Myanmar. What Everyone Needs to Know. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2010, p. 123.
45. Dixit, ‘Road to Mandalay’.
46. Garver, Protracted Contest, p. 263–270. See also Maung Aung Myoe, In the Name of Pauk-Phaw: Myanmar's China Policy since 1948. Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2011, Thant Myint-U, Where China Meets India: Burma and the New Crossroads of Asia. New York: Farrar, Strauss and Giroux, 2012, and Steinberg and Hongwei Fan, Modern China-Myanmar Relations.
47. J. Mohan Malik, ‘Sino-Indian Rivalry in Myanmar: Implications for Regional Security'. Contemporary Southeast Asia Vol. 16. Issue 2 (September 1994): 137–156.
48. In autumn 1992, a number of reports concerning the possible existence of Chinese installations on Burmese islands emerged in both Indian and international media. Dinesh Kumar, ‘Sino-Indian Ties Irk Delhi'. Times of India, November 20, 1992, is often considered the first. Indeed these speculations have later been refuted. See Andrew Selth, Chinese Military Bases in Burma: The Explosion of a Myth, Griffith Asia Institute Regional Outlook, Vol. 10 (Griffith University, 2007).
49. Egreteau, ‘India and China Vying for Influence in Burma’, p. 41. For contemporary expressions of this view, see e.g. P. Stobdan, ‘China's Forays into Burma – Implications for India'. Strategic Analysis Vol. 16. Issue 1 (April 1993): 21–38; Baladas Ghoshal, ‘Trends in China-Burma Relations'. China Report Vol. 30. Issue 2 (April-June 1994): 187–202; P. Stobdan, ‘Myanmar: Breaking Out of Isolation’. Strategic Analysis Vol. 17. Issue 11 (February 1995): 1341–1352; Udai Bhanu Singh, ‘Recent Trends in Relations between Myanmar and China'. Strategic Analysis Vol. 18. Issue 1 (April 1995): 61–72.
50. For the lasting effects of the 1962 war on Indian foreign policy, see for example Jaswant Singh, India at Risk. Mistakes, Misconceptions and Misadventures. New Delhi: Rupa Publications, 2013.
51. See e.g. Andrew Selth, ‘Burma: Hidden Paradise, or Paradise Lost?’ Current Affairs Bulletin Vol. 68 (November 1991): 4–11, and ‘Burma and the Strategic Competition between China and India'. Journal of Strategic Studies Vol. 19. Issue 2 (June 1996): 213–230; P. Stodban, ‘China's Forays into Burma’; David I. Steinberg, ‘Myanmar as Nexus: Sino-Indian Rivalries on the Frontier'. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism Vol. 16. Issue 1 (1993): 1–8; Malik, ‘Sino-Indian Rivalry in Myanmar’ and ‘Myanmar's Role in Regional Security'; Marie Lall, ‘Indo-Myanmar Relations in the Era of Pipeline Diplomacy'. Contemporary Southeast Asia Vol. 28. Issue 3 (2006): 424–446; Egreteau, ‘India and China Vying for Influence in Burma’ and ‘India's Ambitions in Burma’.
52. Sumit Ganguly and Manjeet S. Pardesi, ‘Explaining Sixty Years of India's Foreign Policy'. India Review Vol. 8. Issue1 (2009): 14.
53. Nehginpao Kipgen, ‘Easing India-Myanmar Border Dispute'. Huffington Post, January 27, 2014. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nehginpao-kipgen/easing-indiamyanmar-borde_b_4633040.html.
54. Pushpita Das, ‘India-Myanmar Border Problems: Fencing not the only solution’, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) Comment, 15 November 2013. http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/IndiaMyanmarBorderProblems_pdas_151113.html.
55. Vijay Sakhuja, ‘India and Myanmar: Choices for Military Cooperation'. Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), Issue Brief, September 2012. http://www.icwa.in/pdfs/IBindiamyanmar.pdf.
56. ‘Indian Army Will Get Boost for COIN Operations'. Jane's Defence Weekly, May 4, 2001.
57. Egreteau and Jagan, Soldiers and Diplomacy, p. 306.
58. See for example Egreteau, Renaud, ‘Instability at the Gate: India's Troubled Northeast and its External Connections’, Centre de Sciences Humaines (CSH), Occasional Paper, No. 16 (New Delhi, 2006) and Egreteau, Renaud, ‘Militant mire – Battling insurgency in northeast India'. Jane's Intelligence Review, January 17, 2008.
59. Egreteau and Jagan, Soldiers and Diplomacy, p. 307.
60. The quality of this road has been disputed; see for example M. Hartley and C. Walker, ‘Burma's Second Chance for Trade With India'. Forbes Magazine, March 26, 2013. http://www.forbes.com/sites/morganhartley/2013/03/26/burmas-second-chance-for-trade-with-india/.
61. ‘Driving to Thailand from India could be a reality by 2016'. The Times of India, May 29, 2012. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Driving-to-Thailand-from-India-could-be-a-reality-by-2016/articleshow/13614425.cms.
62. ‘Joint Press Statement on India-Myanmar-Thailand Ministerial Meeting on Transport Linkages'. December 23, 2003, at http://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/7689/Joint±Press±Statement±on±IndiaMyanmarThailand±Ministerial±Meeting±on±Transport±Linkages.
63. See for example ‘India, Myanmar, Thailand Trilateral Highway May Start Soon'. The Economic Times, October 22, 2013. http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-10-22/news/43288682_1_trilateral-highway-india-and-myanmar-kaladan.
64. ‘India, Thailand Hopeful of Trilateral Highway by 2016'. The Hindu, May 30, 2013. http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-thailand-hopeful-of-trilateral-highway-by-2016/article4766782.ece.
65. ‘Soon, a Bus Ride to Myanmar'. Hindustan Times, June 24, 2014. http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/soon-a-bus-ride-to-myanmar/article1-1232832.aspx, ‘Slow Connectivity at the India-Burma Border'. The Irrawaddy, July 23, 2014. http://www.irrawaddy.org/multimedia-burma/slow-connectivity-india-burma-border.html.
66. ‘Proposal for Bus Service to Myanmar in Final Stages'. Times of India, July 10, 2015. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/guwahati/Proposal-for-bus-service-to-Myanmar-in-final-stages/articleshow/48008982.cms.
67. ‘Highway Linking India to Myanmar, Thailand Likely by 2016: VK Singh’. LiveMint, August 14, 2014. http://www.livemint.com/Politics/lXLGGeFzlUmlc3p5hIuKMP/Highway-linking-India-to-Myanmar-Thailand-likely-by-2016-V.html.
68. Myint-U, Where China Meets India.
69. Gurmeet Kanwal, ‘A Strategic Perspective on India-Myanmar Relations', in Lex Rieffel (Ed.), Myanmar/Burma. Inside Challenges, Outside Interests. Washington DC: The Brookings Institution Press, 2010, p. 135.
70. Termsak Chalermpalanupap, ‘ASEAN's Policy of Enhanced Interactions’, in Lex Rieffel (Ed.), Myanmar/Burma. Inside Challenges, Outside Interests. Washington DC: The Brookings Institution Press, 2010, pp. 150–153.
71. Steinberg and Hongwei Fan, Modern China-Myanmar Relations, pp. 335–336.
72. Chalermpalanupap, ‘ASEAN's Policy of Enhanced Interactions’, pp. 150–165, Rajiv Bhatia, India-Myanmar Relations. Changing Contours. New Delhi: Routledge, 2016, pp. 36–39, Pavin Chachavalpongpun, ‘The Last Bus to Naypyidaw’, in Lex Rieffel (Ed.), Myanmar/Burma. Inside Challenges, Outside Interests. Washington DC: The Brookings Institution Press, 2010, pp. 166–180.
73. Chachavalpongpun, ‘The Last Bus to Naypyidaw’, p. 168.
74. Nepal and Bhutan joined in 2003, and since 2004 the organization has been known as BIMSTEC or the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Co-operation. See BIMSTEC's website: http://www.bimstec.org/.
75. Egreteau, Wooing the Generals, p. 107.
76. Pratnashree Basu, ‘From Kunming Initiative to BCIM Corridor'. Observer Research Foundation (ORF), Analysis, August 31, 2013. http://www.observerindia.com/cms/sites/orfonline/modules/analysis/AnalysisDetail.html?cmaid=56396&mmacmaid=56397.
77. ‘BCIM Corridor Gets Push after First Official-level Talks in China'. The Hindu, December 21, 2013. http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/world/bcim-corridor-gets-push-after-first-officiallevel-talks-in-china/article5483848.ece. See also http://www.irrawaddy.org/china/india-china-seek-economic-integration-via-burma-bangladesh.html.
78. Lall, ‘Indo-Myanmar Relations in the Era of Pipeline Diplomacy’, p. 438.
79. Egreteau and Jagan, Soldiers and Diplomacy, p. 314.
80. ‘India, Myanmar to Double Bilateral Trade to $3 Billion'. The Hindu, September 27, 2011. http://www.thehindu.com/business/india-myanmar-to-double-bilateral-trade-to-3-billion/article2490804.ece.
81. Lall, Marie, ‘India-Myanmar Relations – Geopolitics and Energy in Light of the New Balance of Power in Asia'. ISAS Working Paper No. 29 (2008), p. 16.
82. Policy brief ‘India-Myanmar Relations’. MEA, GoI, at http://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/India-Myanmar_Relations.pdf.
83. Jürgen Haacke, ‘Myanmar's Foreign Policy – Domestic Influences and International Implications'. Adelphi Papers No. 381. Abingdon: Routledge, 2006, p. 41, note 44.
84. C. Rajah Mohan, ‘India-Myanmar Naval Diplomacy'. The Indian Express, March 11, 2013. http://archive.indianexpress.com/news/indiamyanmar-naval-diplomacy/1086362/0.
85. Vijay Sakhuja, ‘Myanmar: Expanding Naval Ties with India'. Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS), Peace and Conflict Database article #3876, April 8, 2013. http://www.ipcs.org/article/peace-and-conflict-database/myanmar-expanding-naval-ties-with-india-3876.html.
86. ‘India Boosts Defense Ties With Myanmar'. DefenseNews, July 30, 2014. http://www.defensenews.com/article/20130730/DEFREG03/307300009/India-Boosts-Defense-Ties-Myanmar.
87. Nitin Gokhale, ‘India's Rising Regional Military Engagement'. The Diplomat, February 10, 2014. http://thediplomat.com/2014/02/indias-rising-regional-military-engagement/. Indeed, research on Indian naval power has already for a relatively long time seen India as expanding its military engagement. See for example Walter C. Ladwig III, ‘Delhi's Pacific Ambition: Naval Power, ‘Look East’, and India's Emerging Influence in the Asia-Pacific'. Asian Security Vol. 5. Issue 2 (2009): 87–113.
88. K. Yhome, ‘Myanmar: The Changing Dynamics of External Power Interactions and their Implications', in K. V. Kesavan and Daljit Singh (Eds.), South and Southeast Asia: Responding to Changing Geo-Political and Security Challenges. New Delhi: KW Publishers, 2010, pp. 73–93, endnote 45.
89. Lall, ‘Indo-Myanmar Relations in the Era of Pipeline Diplomacy’, pp. 424–425, and Haacke, ‘Myanmar's Foreign Policy’, p. 35.
90. Lall, Marie, ‘India-Myanmar Relations – Geopolitics and Energy’, p. 12.
91. Egreteau and Jagan, Soldiers and Diplomacy, p. 299.
92. Haacke, ‘Myanmar's Foreign Policy’, p. 35.
93. Ibid., p. 34.
94. Sakhuja, ‘India and Myanmar: Choices for Military Cooperation’.
95. As an example of Fernandes's support, he housed Burmese democracy activist leader Soe Myint at his private residence in Delhi and established the news service Mizzima. See e.g. ‘Too Little, or Too Much Freedom'. Nepali Times, April 4–10, 2012. http://nepalitimes.com/article/nation/varying-press-freedom-in-burma,1261.
96. Egreteau, ‘India and China Vying for Influence in Burma’, p. 60.
97. Lall, ‘India-Myanmar Relations – Geopolitics and Energy’, p. 20.
98. Lall, ‘India-Myanmar Relations’, p. 22, Egreteau and Jagan, Soldiers and Diplomacy, p. 314.
99. GoI, Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region, ‘Look East Policy and the North Eastern States'. February 15, 2011, p. 1.
100. Sonu Trivedi, ‘The importance of Myanmar to Modi'. Asia Times Online, June 13, 2014. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/SOU-02-130614.html.
101. For an overview of security issues relating to India's transport network in the north-east, see Subir Bhaumik, ‘Look East through Northeast: Challenges and Prospects for India'. Observer Research Foundation (ORF), Occasional Paper, Issue 51 (June 2014).
102. ‘Burma-Indo Border Market Threatened by Indian Insurgents'. The Irrawaddy, July 5, 2013, http://www.irrawaddy.org/india/burma-indo-border-market-threatened-by-indian-insurgents.html, and ‘Indian Businessmen Found Dead near Burma Border'. The Irrawaddy, February 21, 2014. http://www.irrawaddy.org/latest-news/indian-businessmen-found-dead-near-burma-border.html.
103. ‘Biz Booms Beyond Borders'. The Times of India, September 10, 2012. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/guwahati/Biz-booms-beyond-borders/articleshow/16329644.cms.
104. See for example ‘Hilary in Myanmar, India Lauds ‘Significant’ Changes'. The Indian Express, December 1, 2011; C. Raja Mohan, ‘Great Game in the East'. The Indian Express, December 1, 2011; ‘Hillary in Myanmar'. Editorial in The Hindu, December 5, 2011; Rajiv Bhatia, ‘Myanmar: On the Road Less Travelled'. The Hindu, December 14, 2011; Pranay Sharma, ‘The Burma Road'. Outlook, December 19, 2011.
105. ‘India PM Manmohan Singh in Historic Burma Visit'. BBC, May 28, 2012. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-18225010.
106. Myanmar's parliament.
107. For an updated overview of exchanges since Thein Sein's government came into office in 2011, see the MEA's website http://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/Myanmar_May-2014.pdf.
108. Udai Bhanu Singh, ‘An Assessment of Manmohan Singh's Visit to Myanmar'. Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), Issue Brief, June 1, 2012.
109. See e.g. Sonu Trivedi, ‘Shared Frontiers, Distant Neighbours'. Myanmar Times, July 28, 2014, http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/opinion/11150-shared-frontiers-distant-neighbours.html, and Sonu Trivedi, ‘The Importance of Myanmar to Modi'. Asia Times Online, June 13, 2014, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/SOU-02-130614.html.
110. Rahul Mishra, ‘Three Neighbors and an Agreement'. India-China Chronicle Vol. 4. Issue 2 (March 2014). http://www.icec-council.org/india-china/index.php?param=news/379295/82.
111. Sonu Trivedi, ‘A New Eastern Axis'. The Indian Express, March 18, 2014. http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/editorials/a-new-eastern-axis/.
112. Haacke, ‘Myanmar's Foreign Policy’, p. 33.
113. See for example Egreteau and Jagan, Soldiers and Diplomacy, p. 248, and Andrew Selth, ‘Burma: Pawn, Pivot, Pariah … and Now Partner'. Strategic Analysis Paper, Future Directions International, 18 April 2013, p. 3.
114. Egreteau, ‘India's Ambitions in Burma’, p. 956.
115. See for example Ranjit Gupta, ‘Transition in Myanmar. Regional Implications and Future Directions’. Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS), Special Commentary (March 2014), p. 2. See also Li Chenyang, ‘The Politics of China and India toward Myanmar’, in Lex Rieffel (Ed.), Myanmar/Burma. Inside Challenges, Outside Interests. Washington DC: The Brookings Institution Press, 2010, pp. 113–133 for a Chinese view of a continued Indian-Chinese competition for access to Myanmar.