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Original Articles

DECODING MYANMAR’S 2015 ELECTION

 

Abstract

The election helps the democratization process move forward. However, the nature of power transition suggests that some authoritarian elements are likely to remain entrenched. The article (which gives a full account of the election including the election process, the parties involved, the results and the negotiations following the elections including those involving Aung Sang Suu Kyi) argues that holding of a free and fair election is important for democratization but does not guarantee a successful transition to consolidated democracy.

Notes

1. The State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC), the official name of the military government from http://www.refworld.org/docid/3df097254.html (accessed December 15, 2015).

2. Sophia Fernandes, ‘Myanmar Election Observers Witness Large Voter Turnout’. International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, November 13, 2015. Available at: http://www.idea.int/asia_pacific/myanmar/myanmar-election-observers-witness-large-voter-turnout.cfm (accessed December 11, 2015).

3. Thomas Fuller, ‘Myanmar's Military Uses Political Force to Block Constitutional Changes’. New York Times, June 25, 2015. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/26/world/asia/myanmar-parliament-constitution-vote.html?_r=0 (accessed December 11, 2015).

4. The protests against the military regime, which were initially started by students in Yangon (formerly Rangoon) on 8 August, spread throughout the country by people from all walks of life, including hundreds of thousands of monks, children, youngsters, university students, housewives and doctors. The uprising ended on 18 September after a bloody military coup by SLORC. The number of deaths was estimated to be in the thousands.

5. Ei Ei Toe Lwin, ‘Outspoken Politician didn’t Make NLD Cut’. Myanmar Times, August 5, 2015. Available at: http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/national-news/15831-outspoken-politician-didn-t-make-nld-cut.html (accessed December 5, 2015).

6. Ei Ei Toe Lwin and Ye Mon, ‘Complaints Continue over NLD's Controversial Candidate List’. Myanmar Times, August 10, 2015. Available at: http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/national-news/15901-complaints-continue-over-nld-s-controversial-candidate-list.html (accessed December 6, 2015).

7. Ma Ba Tha or Patriotic Association of Myanmar is a Buddhist organization formally formed at a conference of Buddhist monks in Mandalay with the mission of defending Theravada Buddhism.

8. Hanna Hindstrom, ‘NLD Blocked Muslim Candidates to Appease Ma Ba Tha: Party Member’. The Irrawaddy, August 31, 2015. Available at: http://www.irrawaddy.com/election/news/nld-blocked-muslim-candidates-to-appease-ma-ba-tha-party-member (accessed December 12, 2015).

9. Hnin Yadana Zaw, ‘Myanmar Military Retains Veto after Constitution Change Vote Fails’. Reuters, June 25, 2015. Available at: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-idUSKBN0P50Q820150625 (accessed December 22, 2015).

10. Hnin Yadana Zaw and Antoni Slodkowski, ‘Myanmar Party Chief Ousted over Ties to Tivals, Contentious Bills – Minister’. Reuters, August 15, 2015. Available at: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-idUSKCN0QK0DV20150815#zjBCLxkXFS5tGd4V.97 (accessed December 5, 2015).

11. Hnin Yadana Zaw, ‘Myanmar Ruling Party Chief Sacked in Power Struggle with President’. Reuters, August 13, 2015. Available at: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-idUSKCN0QI05E20150813#5sjiDCtdX5GVzmLU.97 (accessed December 5, 2015).

12. Shwegu Thitsar, ‘No Clean Sweep: Ethnic Parties Expected to Deny Unanimous Opposition Victory’. Myanmar Times, October 29, 2015. Available at: http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/national-news/17258-no-clean-sweep-ethnic-parties-expected-to-deny-unanimous-opposition-victory.html (accessed December 13).

13. U Shwe Maung, ‘Myanmar's Disenfranchised Rohingya’. New York Times, November 2, 2015. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/03/opinion/myanmar-election-disenfranchised-rohingya.html (accessed December 14, 2015).

14. RJ Vogt, ‘Pressure Builds over Advance Voting’. Myanmar Times, October 29, 2015. Available at: http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/national-news/nay-pyi-taw/17265-pressure-builds-over-advance-voting.html (accessed December 14, 2015).

15. The Guardian, ‘Myanmar Poll Fairness Questioned as Many Blocked from Standing or Voting’. October 28, 2015. Available at: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/29/myanmar-poll-fairness-questioned-as-many-blocked-from-standing-or-voting (accessed December 10, 2015).

16. RJ Vogt, ‘UEC Puts Election Turnout at 69 percent’. Myanmar Times, December 3, 2015. Available at: http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/national-news/nay-pyi-taw/17948-uec-puts-election-turnout-at-69-percent.html (accessed December 4, 2015).

17. Guy Dinmore and Wade Guyitt, ‘Final Results Confirm Scale of NLD Election Victory’. Myanmar Times, November 23, 2015. Available at: http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/national-news/17747-final-results-confirm-scale-of-nld-election-victory.html (accessed December 3, 2015).

18. Adam Withnall, ‘Myanmar Election: Dead NLD Candidate Still Wins Seat as Aung San Suu Kyi's Party Rushes towards Power’. Independent, November 10, 2015. Available at: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/myanmar-election-dead-nld-candidate-still-wins-seat-as-aung-san-suu-kyi-s-party-rushes-towards-power-a6728101.html (accessed December 24, 2015).

19. Fiona Macgregor, ‘Ethnic Parties Fall Short of Expectations’. Myanmar Times, November 16, 2015. Available at: http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/national-news/17632-ethnic-parties-fall-short-of-expectations.html (accessed December 8, 2015).

20. Saw Yan Naing, ‘Suu Kyi, Shwe Mann Vow Peaceful Power Transfer’. The Irrawaddy, November 19, 2015. Available at: http://www.irrawaddy.org/election/news/suu-kyi-shwe-mann-vow-peaceful-power-transfer (accessed December 7, 2015).

21. Htet Naing Zaw and Kyaw Phyo Tha, ‘“Collaboration” the Word as Suu Kyi Meets Thein Sein, Army Chief’. The Irrawaddy, December 2, 2015. Available at: http://www.irrawaddy.org/election/news/update-collaboration (accessed December 8, 2015).

22. Lun Min Mang, ‘Former Dictator Said to Accept Daw Suu as “Future Leader”’. Myanmar Times , December 7, 2015. Available at: http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/national-news/18002-former-dictator-said-to-accept-daw-suu-as-future-leader.html (accessed December 9, 2015).

23. Aung Hla Tun and Antoni Slodkowski, ‘From Icon to Politician: As Myanmar Changes, So does Suu Kyi’. Reuters, December 14, 2015. Available at: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-idUSKBN0TX0ON20151214 (accessed December 18, 2015).

24. Constitution of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar (Chapter III, 2008), Printing & Publishing Enterprise, Ministry of Information.

25. Andrew R.C. Marshall and Timothy Mclaughlin, ‘Myanmar's Suu Kyi Says will be Above President in New Government’. Reuters, November 5, 2015. Available at: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-election-idUSKCN0SU0AR20151105#idWaRqROQPcz26xp.97 (accessed December 9, 2015).

26. Wa Lone and Swan Ye Htut, ‘Immunity Bill Causes Waves, Confusion’. Myanmar Times, December 23, 2015. Available at: http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/national-news/nay-pyi-taw/18258-immunity-bill-causes-waves-confusion.html (accessed December 24, 2015).

27. Ei Ei Toe Lwin, Lun Min Mang and Htoo Thant, ‘NLD Leader Takes Four Cabinet Posts’. Myanmar Times, March 23, 2016. Available at: http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/national-news/nay-pyi-taw/19593-nld-leader-takes-four-cabinet-posts.html (accessed April 16, 2016).

28. Win Ko Ko Latt and Roseanne Gerin, ‘Myanmar's Upper House Passes Bill to Make Aung San Suu Kyi State Counselor’. Radio Free Asia, April 1, 2016. Available at: http://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/myanmars-upper-house-passes-bill-to-make-aung-san-suu-kyi-state-councilor-04012016163821.html (accessed April 16, 2016).

29. Swan Ye Htut, ‘President Signs Controversial Bill’. Myanmar Times, April 7, 2016. Available at: http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/national-news/yangon/19875-president-signs-controversial-bill.html (accessed April 16, 2016).

30. Wa Lone, ‘NLD to Ram Through State Counsellor Law’. Myanmar Times, April 4, 2016. Available at: http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/national-news/nay-pyi-taw/19807-nld-to-ram-through-state-counsellor-law.html (accessed April 16, 2016).

31. VOA News, ‘Outgoing Myanmar President: Election Results Will be Honored’. November 15, 2015. Available at: http://www.voanews.com/content/outgoing-myanmar-president-says-election-results-will-be-honored/3058759.html (accessed December 18, 2015).

32. Wa Lone, ‘Transition Teams Kick Off Months-long Dialogue’. Myanmar Times, December 17, 2015. Available at: http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/national-news/nay-pyi-taw/18171-transition-teams-kick-off-months-long-dialogue.html (accessed December 18, 2015).

33. Donald Share, ‘Transitions to Democracy and Transition through Transaction’. Comparative Political Studies Vol. 19. Issue 4 (1987).

34. Aurel Croissant, ‘From Transition to Defective Democracy: Mapping Asian Democratization’. Democratization Vol. 11. Issue 5 (2004).

35. Myanmar Times, ‘Election Parties’. September 2, 2015. Available at: http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/election-2015/parties.html#nld (accessed December 14, 2015).

36. Myanmar Times, ‘The Myanmar Times Election Live’. November 25, 2015. Available at: http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/election-2015/live-blog.html (accessed December 15, 2015).

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