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Abstract
Approximately 97% of the country is experiencing drought conditions. Due to gross water mismanagement and its damaging impact on the country, Iran faces the worst situation in water resources of any industrialized nation. Tens of thousands of villages have been deserted and most of the major urban centers have passed their limits to absorb new rural migrants. Some officials predict that in less than 25 years, 50 million Iranians would be displaced from their current homes because of the pressing ecological conditions. This is happening at the time that the gap between the grassroots and the state has widened and there is increasing dissatisfaction with governance plagued by corruption, nepotism, economic mismanagement, unaccountability and a foreign policy which has produced various regional and trans-regional adversaries. This paper evaluates the pressing ecological challenges in Iran and by conceptualizing political resilience it critically evaluates whether the Islamic Republic is prepared to face the devastating ecological crisis and its socio-economic consequences.
Notes
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2 Najmeh Bozorgmehr, ‘Iran: Dried Out’. Financial Times, August 21, 2014. https://www.ft.com/content/5a5579c6-0205-11e4-ab5b-00144feab7de (accessed 3 January 2019).
3 Ibid.
4 ‘Iran Facing Race Against Time to Tackle Water Crisis’. Press TV, January 28, 2018. https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/01/23/549903/Iran-economy-water-shortage-dams (accessed 3 January 2019).
5 Ibid.
6 Ibid.
7 Ibid.
8 Tzvi Khan, ‘In Iran’s Water Crisis, Tehran Sows the Seeds of It’s Own Decline’. The Hill, May 26, 2018. https://thehill.com/opinion/international/389131-in-irans-water-crisis-tehran-sows-the-seeds-of-its-own-decline (accessed 3 January 2019).
9 Tim Radford, ‘Iranian Cave Warns of 10000 Years of Drought’. Climate News Network, July 11, 2017. https://climatenewsnetwork.net/iranian-cave-warns-of-10000-years-of-drought/ (accessed 3 January 2019).
10 David Kaniewski, Elise Van Campo, Joël Guiot, Sabine Le Burel, Thierry Otto and Cecile Baeteman, ‘Environmental Roots of the Late Bronze Age Crisis’. Plos One, August 14, 2013. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0071004 (accessed 3 January 2019).
11 Andrew Glikson, ‘Climate and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations: A Lesson From the Past’. The Conversation, December 10, 2015. https://theconversation.com/climate-and-the-rise-and-fall-of-civilizations-a-lesson-from-the-past-51907 (accessed 3 January 2019).
12 ‘Decline of Bronze Age “Megacities” Linked to Climate Change’. PHYS.ORG, University of Cambridge February 26, 2014. https://phys.org/news/2014-02-decline-bronze-age-megacities-linked.html (accessed 3 January 2019).
13 Andrew Maddocks, Robert Samuel Young and Paul Reig, ‘Ranking the World’sMost Water-Stressed Countries in 2040’. World Resources Institute, 2015. http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/08/ranking-world%E2%80%99s-most-water-stressed-countries-2040 (accessed 6 June 2018).
14 Ibid.
15 Catlin E. Werrell, Francesco Femia and Anne-Marie Slaughter, ‘The Arab Spring and Climate Change’. Center for American Progress, February 28, 2013. https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/reports/2013/02/28/54579/the-arab-spring-and-climate-change/ (accessed 3 January 2019).
16 Ibid.
17 Afshin Shahi and Maya Vachkova, ‘Eco-sectarianism: From Ecological Disasters to Sectarian Violence in Syria’. Asian Affairs Journal Vol. 49. Issue 3 (2018).
18 Ibid.
19 Ibid.
20 Afshin Shahi and Maya Vachkova, ‘Water Security and the Rise of Eco-Sectarian Conflict in Yemen’, in Iqbal Mujtaba (Ed.), Water Management: Social and Technological Perspective. The CRC Press, 2018.
21 Homa Katouzian, ‘The Short-Term Society: A Study in the Problems of Long-Term Political and Economic Development in Iran’. Middle Eastern Studies Vol. 40. Issue 1 (2004): 1–22.
22 Rudi Matthee, Persia in Crisis: Safavid Decline and the Fall of Isfahan; Safavid Decline and the Fall of Isfahan. London: I.B Tauris & Co, 2012, p. 231, 235 and 253.
23 ‘“Joz’ee’yāt-i Dah Doreh Khoshk’sālī dar Irān, Ostān’hāyi keh dar Vaz’ee’yat-i Hoshdār-i Khoshk’sālī Gharār Dārand” Shodeh’and’ [Some Details About 10 Drought Periods and Provinces Which are in Drought Alert. An Interview With Forūd Sharifī, President’s Deputy of Science in Charge of Environment & Water Development], Mehr News Agency, 8 Mehr 1393/September 24, 2014. https://www.mehrnews.com/news/2380436/جزئیات-10-دوره-خشکسالی-در-ایران-استانهایی-که-در-وضعیت-هشدار (accessed 3 January 2019).
24 ‘Iran’. Nations Encyclopedia. https://www.nationsencyclopedia.com/geography/Indonesia-to-Mongolia/Iran.html#ixzz5b5d8elFZ (accessed 3 January 2019).
25 Ibid.
26 Ibid.
27 Ibid.
28 Ali Hajizade, ‘Water Crisis in Iran: Causes, Consequences and Perspectives’. July 3, 2018. https://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2018/07/03/Water-crisis-in-Iran-Causes-consequences-and-perspectives.html (accessed 3 January 2019).
29 Ibid.
30 Ibid.
31 Kaveh Madani, Amir AghaKouchak and Ali Mirchi, ‘Iran’s Socio-economic Drought: Challenges of a Water-Bankrupt Nation’. Iranian Studies Vol. 49. Issue 6 (2016): 997–1016.
32 Ibid.
33 ‘Iran Population (Live)’. World Matters, http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/iran-population/ (accessed 3 January 2019).
34 The United Nations, ‘World Fertility Patterns 2015’, http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/fertility/world-fertility-patterns-2015.pdf (accessed 3 January 2019).
35 ‘Iran Population (Live)’, World Matters, http://www.worldometers.info/worldpopulation/iran-population/ (accessed 3 January 2019).
36 Madani, AghaKouchak and Mirchi, ‘Iran’s Socio-economic Drought’, p. 999.
37 Ibid.
38 Ibid.
39 Ibid.
40 Mohsen B. Mesgaran, Kaveh Madani, Hosseing Hashemi and Pooya Azadi, ‘Iran’s Land Suitability for Agriculture’. Scientific Reports, December 2017. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-08066-y (accessed 3 January 2019).
41 Ibid.
42 Ali Shokoori, The State and Rural Development in Post-Revolutionary Iran. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2001, p. 4, 72 and 125.
43 Madani, AghaKouchak and Mirchi, ‘Iran’s Socio-economic Drought’, p. 1000.
44 Ibid.
45 Ibid, 1002.
46 Ibid.
47 ‘Iran Risks Losing 70% of Farmlands: Environmental Chief’. France 24, November 5, 2018, https://www.france24.com/en/20181005-iran-risks-losing-70-farmlands-environment-chief (accessed 3 January 2019).
48 Ibid.
49 Ibid.
50 ‘How Iran’s Khuzestan Went From Wetland to Wasteland’. The Guardian, April 16, 2015. https://www.theguardian.com/world/iran-blog/2015/apr/16/iran-khuzestan-environment-wetlands-dust-pollution (accessed 3 January 2019).
51 Ali Shokoori, The State and Rural Development in Post-Revolutionary Iran. p. 103.
52 ‘How Iran’s Khuzestan Went From Wetland to Wasteland’. The Guardian, April 16, 2015. https://www.theguardian.com/world/iran-blog/2015/apr/16/iran-khuzestan-environment-wetlands-dust-pollution (accessed 3 January 2019).
53 Seth M. Siegel, ‘Forget the Politics. Iran Has Bigger Problems’. Washington Post, May 16, 2017. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/democracy-post/wp/2017/05/16/forget-the-politics-iran-has-bigger-problems/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.e573073ddb1d (accessed 3 January 2019).
54 Monavar Khalaj, ‘Iran’s Rouhani Rolls Back on Dam Projects’. Financial Times, March 19, 2015. https://www.ft.com/content/56704462-ccb7-11e4-b5a5-00144feab7de (accessed 3 January 2019).
55 Madani, AghaKouchak and Mirchi, ‘Iran’s Socio-economic Drought’, p. 999.
56 ‘Special Report on the Hamun Lake Crisis’. IRIN, September 25, 2002. http://www.irinnews.org/feature/2002/09/25/special-report-hamun-lake-crisis (accessed 3 January 2019).
57 Kennet R. Weiss, ‘Iran’s Tarnished Gem’, April 3, 2018. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/photography/proof/2018/04/lake-urmia-iran-drought/ (accessed 3 January 2019).
58 Ibid.
59 ‘Fears Over Prolonged Drought in Iran’. BBC, January 19, 2018. https://www.bbc.com/weather/features/42746372 (accessed 3 January 2019).
60 Ibid.
61 ‘Bish az Sī Hezār Rūstā-i Irān dar Bish az Nim Gharn Gozashteh Khālī Shodeh’and’ [More than 30000 Iranian Villages Have Been Abandined in the Last 50 Years], Radio Farda, Persian, 25 Shahrivar 1395/September 8, 2016. https://www.radiofarda.com/a/f2-iran-villages-in-thousands-without-residents-rohani-government/27990064.html (accessed 3 January 2019).
62 Niki Mahjoub, ‘Mohjerān Khoshk’sālī dar Irān beh Donbāl-i Sarpanāh’ [Iran’s Drought Refugees in Search of Sanctuary], BBC Persian, 8 Shahrivar 1397/August 30, 2018. http://www.bbc.com/persian/45281646 (accessed 3 January 2019).
63 ‘Enāyat’ollāh Rahimī, Mas’ool-i Omūr-i Omrānī Ostān-i Fārs: Āb-i Āshāmidanī-i Mored-i Niyāz-i Haftsado Panjāh Rūstā Bā Tānker Ta’meen Mishavad’ [Head of Fars Province’s Water Bureau: The Drinking Water of More than 750 Villages are Delivered by Tankers], Radio Zamaneh, 18 Mordad 1397/August 5, 2018. https://www.radiozamaneh.com/406899 (accessed 3 January 2019).
64 https://www.radiozamaneh.com/406899 (accessed 3 January 2019).
65 Arash Karami, ‘Iran Official Warns Water Crisis Could Lead to Mass Migration’, Al-Monitor, April 28, 2015. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/fr/originals/2015/04/iran-water-crisis-mass-migration.html (accessed 3 January 2019).
66 ‘Vazir-i Keshvar: Panj Sāleh Digar Mohāieat-i Eghlim Chehrey-i Irān rā Tagh’yir Midahad’ [Iran’s Interior Minister: In Five Years Environmental Migrations Will Change the Face of Iran], Radio Farda, 7 Mordad 1397/July 29, 2018. https://www.radiofarda.com/a/iranianinteriorminister-drought-emigration-/29396926.html.
67 Ibid.
68 W. Neil Adger, ‘Social and Ecological Resilience: Are They Related?’. Progress in Human Geography Vol. 24. Issue 3 (September 2000): 374–364.
69 Joss Colchester, ‘Political Systems Resilience’. Complexity Labs, July 4, 2017. https://complexitylabs.io/political-systems-resilience/ (accessed 3 January 2019).
70 For example, in a small country like Qatar, the grassroots seem to be satisfied with the rentier state.
71 Afshin Shahi and Alam Saleh, ‘Andalusiasation: Is Iran on the Trajectory of De-Islamisation?’ The British Journal of Middle East Studies Vol. 42. Issue 4 (2015).
72 Ibid.
73 Ladan Nasseri, Golnar Motevalli and Arsalan Shahla, ‘After Sanctions, Iran’s Economy Is Nearing a Crisis’, August 9, 2018. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-09/as-sanctions-hit-iran-s-on-the-verge-of-economic-breakdown (accessed 3 January 2019).
74 ‘Economic Crisis in Iran Leading to Job Cuts and Inflation’. Radio Farda, August 15, 2018. https://en.radiofarda.com/a/iran-economic-crisis-inflation-jobs/29435184.html (accessed 3 January 2019).
75 Ibid.
76 Monavar Khalaj, ‘Iranian Anger at Corruption Grows as Sanctions Bite’. Financial Times, August 27, 2018. https://www.ft.com/content/80aebcce-a772-11e8-8ecf-a7ae1beff35b (accessed 3 January 2019).
77 ‘Iran’. Transparency International, https://www.transparency.org/country/IRN (accessed 3 January 2019).
78 Afshin Shahi and Hesam Forozan, ‘The Military and the State in Post-Revolutionary Iran: The Economic Rise of the Revolutionary Guards’. The Middle East Journal Vol. 71 (January 2017).
79 Holly Dagres, ‘Iranian Crackdown on Corruption May Only Be Superficial’. Atlantic Council, October 12, 2018. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/iranian-crackdown-on-corruption-may-only-be-superficial (accessed 3 January 2019).
80 Julian Borger and Ian Black, ‘World Leaders urged by Iran’s Opposition Party to Reject Ahmadinejad’s Alleged Victory’. The Guardian, June 14, 2009. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/jun/14/iran-ahmadinejad-mousavi-elections-result (accessed 3 January 2019).
81 Sofia Patel, ‘Rouhani-Why is Iran’s Reformer Not Reforming?’ The Strategist, February 5, 2018. https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/rouhani-irans-reformer-not-reforming/ (accessed 3 January 2019).
82 Saeed Kamali Dehghan, ‘Rouhani Acknowledges Iranian Discontent as Protests Continue’. The Guardian, December 31, 2017. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/31/protesters-who-spread-fear-and-violence-will-be-confronted-says-iran (accessed 3 January 2019).
83 ‘Authorities Admit At Least 11 Injured in Protests Over Lack of Water’. Radio Farda, July 1, 2018. https://en.radiofarda.com/a/khorramshahr-water-protests-turn-violent-/29330047.html (accessed 3 January 2019).
84 Alam Saleh, Ethnic Identity and the State in Iran. New York: Pelgrave Macmillan, 2013, pp. 70–72 and 112–115.
85 Babal Dehghanpisheh, ‘Water Crisis Spurs Protests in Iran’. Reuters, March 29, 2018. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-security-water-crisis/water-crisis-spurs-protests-in-iran-idUSKBN1H51A5 (accessed 3 January 2019).
86 ‘Explainer: Iranian Drought Raises Environmental Alarm’. BBC, January 17, 2018. https://monitoring.bbc.co.uk/product/c1dooomk (accessed 3 January 2019).
87 Heshmat Alavi, ‘A Close Look at Iran’s Budget’. Forbes, March 1, 2018. https://www.forbes.com/sites/heshmatalavi/2018/03/01/a-close-look-at-irans-budget/#74f8aac56e1e (accessed 3 January 2019).
88 ‘Būdje-i Novado Hasht; Sahm-i Nahādhāy-i Mazhabī va Tablighātī Sizdah Barābar-i Mohit-i Zist Ast’ [Iran’s 2019 Budget; The Share Religious & Propaganda Institutions is 13 Times More than Environmental Agency]. BBC Persian, December 30, 2018. http://www.bbc.com/persian/iran-features-46716263 (accessed 3 January 2019).
89 Ibid.
90 Ibid.
91 ‘Rayis-i Sāzmān-i Padāfand-i Gheir-Āmel: Taghyirāt-i Eghlimī Irān Mashkūk Ast/Abr’hāyeh Irān rā Midozdand’ [Revolutionary Gurrd’s General in Charge of Iran’s Stationary Defense Organization: Iran’s Environmental Changes are Suspicious/ Our Clouds Are Being Stolen] ISNA, July 2, 2018. https://www.isna.ir/news/97041106044/تغییرات-اقلیمی-ایران-مشکوک-است-ابرهای-ایران-را-می-دزدند (accessed 3 January 2019).