![Sample our Area Studies journals, sign in here to start your access, latest two full volumes FREE to you for 14 days]({"type":"image" , "src" : "/sda/5922/TOC-Subject-Sample-2021-Area-Studies.jpg"})
ABSTRACT
On March 26, 2021, the civil war in Yemen entered its seventh year. Despite the multiple attempts made by the United Nations and other regional and international parties to end this war and launch negotiations leading to a comprehensive political settlement, these attempts have not yielded any tangible results, and the war continues.
In light of the current complex situation in Yemen, this article discusses and evaluates the main factors that fuel the continuation of the war and impede efforts to achieve a peaceful political settlement. This article also considers the future of the Yemeni state, which is now in an unprecedented situation of fracture and division, and also witnessing the world's worst humanitarian disaster according to UN sources.
This article is divided into three sections. The first section discusses the most important developments in the Yemeni war during 2021, especially with regard to the US policy towards the war. The second section analyzes the most important reasons behind the continuation of the war and the failure of efforts towards a peaceful political settlement. The third section explores the future of the Yemen, especially with regards to the dangers of disintegration and the difficulties of maintaining the unity of the Yemeni state.
Disclosure Statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
Notes
1 John R. Allen and Bruce Riedel, ‘Ending the Yemen War Is Both a Strategic and Humanitarian Imperative’. Brookings, November 16, 2020, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/ending-the-yemen-war-is-both-a-strategic-and-humanitarian-imperative/ (accessed 11 May 2021); United Nations, World Food Program, ‘Yemen: The World’s Worst Humanitarian Crisis’. https://www.wfp.org/yemen-crisis (accessed 11 June 2021).
2 Ammar Al-Ashwal, ‘Yemen and the Curse of Geography: Bab al-Mandab Disputed by Great Power Rivalries’. Sada: Middle East Analysis, Carnegie Endowment for international Peace, May 18, 2021, https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/84558 (accessed 28 May 2021).
3 Stephen W. Day, ‘America’s Role in the Yemen Crisis’, in Stephen W. Day and Noel Brehony (Eds.), Global, Regional, and Local Dynamics in the Yemen Crisis. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2020, Chapter 4; Sultan Al-Amer, ‘Biden and the War in Yemen: The Larger Context of the Shifts in the American Position’. Sada: Middle East Analysis, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 14, 2021, https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/84326; Emirates Policy Center, ‘Biden Administration and Yemen: Orientations and Implications for the Conflict Parties and Political Solution Path’. Brief, 17 February, 2021, https://epc.ae/whatif-details/59/biden-administration-and-yemen-orientations-and-implications-for-the-conflict-parties-and-political-solution-path (accessed 11 March 2021).
4 Aaron Mehta and Joe Gould, ‘What Will a New US Policy on Yemen Mean for Saudi Relations?’ Defense News, February 15, 2021, https://www.defensenews.com/global/mideast-africa/2021/02/15/what-will-a-new-us-policy-on-yemen-mean-for-saudi-relations/ (accessed 12 March 2021).
5 ‘US Envoy for Yemen Heading to Saudi Arabia for Ceasefire Talks’. Arab News, June 16, 2021, https://www.arabnews.com/node/1877651/middle-east (accessed 24 June 2021).
6 Joseph Haboush, ‘Senior US official, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince meet for first time under Biden’. AlARABIYA News, September 28, 2021. https://english.alarabiya.net/News/gulf/2021/09/28/US-National-Security-Advisor-to-focus-on-Yemen-during-Saudi-Arabia-visit-White-House; Michael Wahid Hanna and Peter Salisbury, ‘The Shattering of Yemen Why Ending the War Is More Difficult Than Ever’. Foreign Affairs, August 19, 2021. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-08-19/shattering-yemen.
7 ‘Full Text of Saudi Arabia’s New Peace Initiative to End Yemen War’. AlARABIYA News, March 23, 2021. https://english.alarabiya.net/News/gulf/2021/03/23/Full-text-of-Saudi-Arabia-s-new-peace-initiative-to-end-Yemen-war (accessed 28 April 2021); Samir Salama, ‘Arab, International Support for Saudi Arabia’s Yemen Peace Initiative’. Gulf News, March 23, 2021, https://gulfnews.com/world/gulf/yemen/arab-international-support-for-saudi-arabias-yemen-peace-initiative-1.78028255# (accessed 13 May 2021).
8 Lyse Doucet, ‘Yemen Conflict: Saudi Arabia Puts forward Peace Plan’. BBC News, March 22, 2021, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-56491503 (accessed 14 May 2021).
9 Mutahar Alsofari, ‘The Battle for Ma’rib: Insights and Outlook’. Sada: Middle East Analysis, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 21, 2021, https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/84588 (accessed 7 June 2021); International Crisis Group, ‘Crisis in Marib: Averting a Chain Reaction in Yemen’. Statement/Middle East & North Africa, February 22, 2021, https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/yemen/crisis-marib-averting-chain-reaction-yemen-0 (accessed 11 March 2021).
10 Annelle Sheline, ‘Washington Has Yemen Policy Backward’. Foreign Policy, June 3, 2021, https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/06/03/houthis-saudi-arabia-biden-yemen-policy-backward/ (accessed 20 June 2021).
11 James Reinl, ‘UN ‘Disappointed’ as Houthis Delay Oil Tanker Rescue’. The National, June 4, 2021, https://www.thenationalnews.com/gulf-news/un-disappointed-as-houthis-delay-oil-tanker-rescue-1.1234312 (accessed 11 June 2021).
12 Ahmed Nagi, ‘Lords of War’. DIWAN: Middle East Insights from Carnegie, Malcolm H. Keer: Carnegie Middle East Center, February 16, 2021; International Crisis Group, ‘Rethinking Peace in Yemen’. Middle East Report, No. 216, July 2020.
13 International Crisis Group, ‘Rethinking Peace in Yemen’, op. cit., pp. 10–11.
14 Elana Delozier, ‘Houthis Release Their Wish List for Ending the Yemen War’. Policy Analysis/Policy Alert, The Washington Institute for near East Policy, April 9, 2020.
15 Nadwa Al-Dawsari, ‘The Houthis and the Limits of Diplomacy in Yemen’. Middle East Institute, May 6, 2021, https://www.mei.edu/publications/houthis-and-limits-diplomacy-yemen (accessed 11 June 2021); Bruce Riedel, ‘Who Are the Houthis, and Why Are We at War with Them?’ Brookings, December 18, 2018, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2017/12/18/who-are-the-houthis-and-why-are-we-at-war-with-them/ (accessed 12 January 2021).
16 Mina Aldroubi, ‘UN ‘Frustrated’ at Stagnant Yemen Peace Process Despite Pressure’. The National, June 1, 2021, https://www.thenationalnews.com/gulf-news/un-frustrated-at-stagnant-yemen-peace-process-despite-pressure-1.1233477 (accessed 15 June 2021).
17 Nadwa Al-Dawsari, ‘Why the “End of the Yemen War” Narrative is Problematic’. Middle East Institute, February 9, 2021. https://www.mei.edu/publications/why-end-yemen-war-narrative-problematic; International Crisis Group, ‘Rethinking Peace in Yemen’, op. cit., p. 31; Jeremy M. Sharp, ‘Yemen: Civil War and Regional Intervention’. CRS Report, R43960, Congressional Research Service, September 2019.
18 Jeremy M. Sharp, op. cit., p.5.
19 Jean-Loup C. Samaan, ‘Missiles, Drones, and the Houthis in Yemen’. Parameters Vol. 50. Issue 1 (Spring 2020): 54–55; Michael Knights, ‘The Houthi War Machine: From Guerrilla War to State Capture’.CTC Sentinel, Vol. 11, Issue 8 (September 2018); Tom O’Connor, ‘Exclusive: Iran Positions ‘Suicide Drones’ in Yemen as Red Sea Tensions Rise’. Newsweek, January 13, 2021, https://www.newsweek.com/iran-suicide-drones-yemen-red-sea-tensions-1561395 (accessed 14 March 2021); United Nations Panel of Experts on Yemen, Letter Dated 22 January 2021 from the Panel of Experts on Yemen Addressed to the President of the Security Council, January 25, 2021, https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3898851?ln=en (accessed 20 April 2021); Elisabeth Kendall, “Iran’s Fingerprints in Yemen: Real or Imagined?” Issue Brief, Atlantic Council, October 2017.
20 Fatima Abo Alasrar, ‘For Yemen’s Houthis, the Status Quo Is the Key to Power’. Middle East Institute, March 25, 2021; Nadwa Al-Ddawsari, ‘Why the End of the Yemen War Narrative Is Problematic’, op. cit.
21 Ammar Al-Ashwal, ‘Where Is the Yemen War Heading?’ Sada: Middle East Analysis, Carnegie Endowment for International peace, April 15, 2020, https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/81565 (accessed 11 June 2021); Pierre Bernin, ‘Saudi-led Coalition Loses Its Grip on Yemen’. Le Monde diplomatique, January 2021, https://mondediplo.com/2021/01/04yemen (accessed 11 March 2021); Alexandra Stark, ‘Mohammed bin Salman’s Collapsing Coalition in Yemen Means Trouble for Trump’. Foreign Policy, August 23, 2019, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/23/mohammed-bin-salmans-coalition-in-yemen-is-collapsing-that-means-trouble-for-trump-uae-saudi-arabia-aden/ (accessed 11 March 2021).
22 International Crisis Group, ‘Rethinking Peace in Yemen’, op. cit., pp. 20–21.
23 Hussein Ibish, ‘Saudi Arabia’s New Dialogue with Iran Was Long in the Making’. The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, May 4, 2021; Dina Esfandiary and Ariane Tabatabai, ‘Yemen: An Opportunity for Iran-Saudi Dialogue?’ The Washington Quarterly Vol. 39. Issue 2 (2016): 155–174.
24 International Crisis Group, ‘Rethinking Peace in Yemen’, op. cit., pp. 16–17.
25 Sarah Phillips, Yemen’s Democracy Experiment in Regional Perspective: Patronage and Pluralized Authoritarianism. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008; Thomas Juneau, ‘Yemen: Prospects for State Failure - Implications and Remedies’. Middle East Policy Vol. XVII. Issue 3 (Fall 2010): 134–152; April Longley Alley, ‘Yemen’s Multiple Crises’. Journal of Democracy Vol. 12. No. 21 (2010): 72–86.
26 Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, ‘Corruption in Yemen’s War Economy’. Policy Brief, No. 9, November 2018, p. 3.
27 Afshon Ostovar, ‘The Grand Strategy of Militant Clients: Iran’s Way of War’. Security Studies Vol. 28. Issue 1 (2019): 159–188; Amjad Tadros, ‘Why Yemen Will Have to Keep Waiting for an End to Its Devastating Civil War’. CBS News, May 6, 2021, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/war-in-yemen-houthis-iran-us-nuclear-talks-saudi-arabia-civil-war/ (accessed 22 June 2021).
28 Samuel Ramani, ‘How is Iran Responding to Biden’s Policy Shift on Yemen?’ Middle East Institute, March 9, 2021; Bradley Bowman and Katherine Zimmerman, ‘Biden Can’t Bring Peace to Yemen While Iran Keeps Sending Weapons’ Foreign Policy, March 4, 2021, https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/04/biden-yemen-peace-saudi-arabia-houthis-iran-weapons/ (accessed 13 May 2021).
29 Security Council, ‘Resolution 2216 (2015)’. April 14, 2015, https://www.undocs.org/S/RES/2216%20 (accessed 11 May 2021).
30 Ahmed Al-Haj, ‘UN Envoy Says He’s Frustrated as Yemen Truce Talks Derailed’. AP News, May 31, 2021, https://apnews.com/article/united-nations-middle-east-yemen-8ac9a54e38a0ee1f8b536a6f2b07873e (accessed 22 June 2021).
31 Muriel Asseburg, Wolfram Lacher and Mareike Transfeld, ‘Mission Impossible? UN Mediation in Libya, Syria and Yemen’. SWP Research Paper, No. 8, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, October 2018; Helen Lackner, ‘Why Can’t the United Nations Bring Peace to Yemen?’ OpenDemocracy, 6 January 2018, https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/north-africa-west-asia/why-can-t-united-nations-bring-peace-to-yemen/ (accessed 11 March 2021); Why the United Nations Cannot End Wars in the Arab world, The Economist, February 15, 2020, https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/02/13/why-the-united-nations-cannot-end-wars-in-the-arab-world (accessed 14 January 2021).
32 Nadwa Al-Dawsari, ‘Why the “End the Yemen War” Narrative Is Problematic’, op. cit.; U.S. Department of State, ‘U.S. Special Envoy for Yemen Lenderking Returns from Travel to Saudi Arabia, Oman, the UAE, and Jordan’. Media Note, June 4, 2021, https://www.state.gov/u-s-special-envoy-for-yemen-lenderking-returns-from-travel-to-saudi-arabia-oman-the-uae-and-jordan/ (accessed 24 June 2021).
33 International Crisis Group, ‘Rethinking Peace in Yemen’, op. cit., p. 31.
34 International Crisis Group, ‘The Case for More Inclusive - and More Effective - Peacemaking in Yemen’. Middle East Report, No. 221, 18 March 2021.
35 Jamal Benomar, ‘Power-Sharing Is the Only Way to End the War in Yemen – If the US Supports It’. The Guardian, March 26, 2021, https://www.theguardian.com/profile/jamal-benomar (accessed 11 May 2021).
36 International Crisis Group, ‘Rethinking Peace in Yemen’, op. cit., p. i. See also, Noel Brehony, ‘War in Yemen: No End in Sight as the State Disintegrates’. Asian Affairs Vol. 51. Issue 3 (2020): 510–527.
37 20 Years after 9/11, Al Qaeda Is Still a Threat. Yemen’s largely Forgotten Civil War Has Let the Terror Group Thrive’. CBS News. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/al-qaeda-20-years-later-thriving-yemen-war-aqap-threat-us/; Kali Robinson, ‘Yemen’s Tragedy: War, Stalemate, and Suffering’. Council Foreign Relations, September 2, 2021. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/yemen-crisis.
38 Bradley Bowman and Katherine Zimmerman, ‘Biden Can’t Bring Peace to Yemen While Iran Keeps Sending Weapons’. Foreign Policy, March 4, 2021, https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/04/biden-yemen-peace-saudi-arabia-houthis-iran-weapons/ (accessed 14 May 2021).
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Hassanein Ali
Hassanein Ali is a professor of political science at Zayed University in the United Arab Emirates. He is the author and editor of numerous books, book chapters, and journal articles on contemporary politics of the Middle East and North Africa. Email: [email protected]