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ABSTRACT

The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has recently experienced large-scale unrest on a scale not witnessed for several years. The country, long viewed as a beacon of stability in a deeply fragile region, now faces a growing risk that it could be destabilised. This article addresses multiple pillars of stability and drivers of instability in Jordan, including the impact of the Syrian crisis, large-scale displacement, resource scarcity, and chronic political, economic, and social difficulties. Whilst the regime has endured crisis and remained stable, increasing pressures in the past few years have led analysts to predict the onset of violence or deepening instability in Jordan.

Notes

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3 Robert Satloff and David Schenker, ‘Political Instability in Jordan’. Council on Foreign Relations, May 15, 2013, https://www.cfr.org/ (accessed 22 March 2021).

4 ‘Syria Conflict: JORDANIANS “at Boiling Point” Over Refugees’. BBC, February 2, 2016, https://www.bbc.com/ (accessed 22 March 2021).

5 Mona Christophersen, ‘Protest and Reform in Jordan: Popular Demand and Government Response 2011 to 2012’. FAFO. 2013, https://www.fafo.no/ (accessed 22 March 2021).

6 Fund for Peace (FFP), Fragile states index annual report, 2020, https://fundforpeace.org/ (accessed 22 March 2021).

7 Lorenzo Bernal-Verdugo, Davide Furceri, and Dominique Guillaume, ‘The Dynamic Effect of Social and Political Instability on Output: The Role of Reforms’. International Monetary Fund. IMF Working Paper, 13/91, 2013.

8 Johannes Gerschewski, ‘The Three Pillars of Stability: Legitimation, Repression, and Co-Optation in Autocratic Regimes’. Democratization Vol. 20. Issue 1 (2013): 13–38.

9 Johannes Gerschewski, ‘The Three Pillars of Stability: Towards An Explanation for the Durability of Autocratic Regimes in EAST ASIA’. APSA 2010 Annual Meeting Paper, 14, 2010.

10 Ibid.

11 David Easton, A Systems Analysis of Political Life, 2nd ed. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1979.

12 Gerschewski, ‘The Three Pillars of Stability: Towards an Explanation for the Durability of Autocratic Regimes in East Asia’, op. cit.

13 Ibid.

14 Christian Davenport, ‘State Repression and Political Order’. Annual Review of Political Science Vol. 10. Issue 2 (2007).

15 Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way, ‘Competitive Authoritarianism: International Linkage, Organizational Power; and the Fate of Hybrid Regimes’. Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, 2006.

16 O. Schlumberger and A. Bank, ‘Succession, Legitimacy, and Regime Stability in Jordan’. The Arab Studies Journal Vol. 9. Issue 2/1 (2001): 50–72.

17 Gerschewski, ‘The Three Pillars of Stability: Legitimation, Repression, and Co-Optation in Autocratic Regimes’, op. cit., p. 22.

18 Gerschewski, ‘The Three Pillars of Stability: Towards an Explanation for the Durability of Autocratic Regimes in East Asia’.

19 Christoph H. Stefes, Understanding Post-Soviet Transitions: Corruption, Collusion and Clientelism. Palgrave Macmillan, 2006.

20 Hans Morgenthau, ‘A Political Theory of Foreign Aid’. The American Political Science Review Vol. 56. Issue 2 (1962): 301–309.

21 Amanda A. Licht, ‘Coming into Money: The Impact of Foreign Aid on Leader Survival’. Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 54. Issue 1 (2010): 58–87.

22 Laurie A. Brand, ‘Palestinians and Jordanians: A Crisis of Identity’. Journal of Palestine Studies Vol. 24. Issue 4 (1995): 46–61; Sean L. Yom, ‘Jordan: Ten More Years of Autocracy’. Journal of Democracy Vol. 20. Issue 4 (2009): 151–166.

23 Sean L. Yom and F. Gregory Gause III, ‘Resilient Royals: How Arab Monarchies Hang On’. Journal of Democracy Vol. 23. Issue 4 (2012): 85.

24 Daniel Yuichi Kono and Gabriella R. Montinola, ‘Does Foreign aid Support Autocrats, Democrats, or Both?’ The Journal of Politics Vol. 71. Issue 2 (2009): 704–718.

25 Asef Bayat, ‘Arab Revolutions and the Study of Middle Eastern Societies’. International Journal of Middle East Studies Vol. 43. Issue 3 (2011): 386–386; F. Gregory Gause III, ‘Why Middle East Studies Missed the Arab Spring: The Myth of Authoritarian Stability’. Foreign Affairs Vol. 90. Issue 4 (2011): 81–90.

26 Filipe R. Campante and Davin Chor, ‘Why was the Arab World Poised for Revolution? Schooling, Economic Opportunities, and the Arab Spring’. Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol. 26. Issue 2 (2012): 167–188.

27 Elena Lanchovichina, Eruptions of Popular Anger: The Economics of the Arab Spring and Its Aftermath. The World Bank, 2017.

28 Muzammil M. Hussain and Philip N. Howard, ‘What Best Explains Successful Protest Cascades? ICTs and the Fuzzy causes of the Arab Spring’. International Studies Review Vol. 15. Issue 1 (2013): 48–66.

29 Yoav Alon, The Making of Jordan: Tribes, Colonialism and the Modern State. London: I.B. Tauris, 2007.

30 Nicole Peterson, Tom Rieger and Allison Astorino-Courtois, ‘Potential Paths to Instability in Jordan’. National Security Innovations (NSI), NSI Reachback Report, 2020 https://nsiteam.com/social/ (accessed 22 March 2021).

31 Lamis El Muhtaseb, ‘Jordan’s East Banker-Palestinian Schism’. Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre (NOREF), Expert Analysis, 2013; Barbara Gallets, ‘Black September and Identity Construction in Jordan’. Journal of Georgetown University-Qatar Middle Eastern Studies Student Association Vol. 2015. Issue 1 (2015); Brand, ‘Palestinians and Jordanians’, op. cit.

32 Muhtaseb, ‘Jordan’s East Banker-Palestinian Schism’, op. cit.

33 Ibid.; Brand, ‘Palestinians and Jordanians’, op. cit.

34 Christophersen, ‘Protest and Reform in Jordan’, op. cit.

35 International Republican Institute, ‘Violent Extremism in Jordan: Local Governance, Tribal Dynamics and Forced Migration’, 2018.

36 World Bank, Jordan data, 2020. https://data.worldbank.org/country/jordan (accessed 22 March 2021).

37 UNHCR, Jordan: Factsheet (September 2020), 2020. https://data2.unhcr.org/ (accessed 22 March 2021).

38 UNHCR, Basic Needs and Shelter Working Groups, 2018. https://data2.unhcr.org/es/documents/download/61728 (accessed 22 March 2021).

39 REACH Initiative, ‘Evaluating the Effect of the Syrian Refugee Crisis on Stability and Resilience in Jordanian Host Communities’. Preliminary Impact Assessment, 2014.

40 G. Elkahlout, ‘Challenges and Opportunities for Refugees in Host Countries: Jordan as a Case Study’. Siyasat Arabiya Vol. 38 (2019).

41 UN Web TV, Leaders’ Summit on Refugees, min. 33:30, 2016. http://webtv.un.org/ (accessed 22 March 2021).

42 ‘Jordan at Boiling Point’. The Economist, February 6, 2016. https://www.economist.com/ (accessed 22 March 2021).

44 Ibid.

45 World Bank, Jordan data, op. cit.

46 Jeroen van IJzerloo, ‘Jordan’s Economy Remains in Jeopardy’. Rabobank, Country Report, 2016. https://economics.rabobank.com/ (accessed 22 March 2021).

47 Christophersen, ‘Protest and Reform in Jordan’, op. cit.

48 ‘Jordan Parliament Endorses State Budget for 2017’. ANSAmed, January 19, 2017. http://www.ansamed.info/ (accessed 22 March 2021).

49 Michael Safi, ‘Frustration and Anger Fuel Wave of Youth Unrest in Arab World’. The Guardian, November 2, 2019. https://www.theguardian.com/ (accessed 22 March 2021).

50 Françoise De Bel-Air, ‘A Political Demography of the Refugee Question. Palestinians in Jordan and Lebanon: Between protection, forced return and resettlement, European University Institute (Florence) & Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies’. CARIM Research Reports Vol. 2 (2012).

51 Mohamed Eltaher, ‘Jordan and the Dangerous Danger [in Arabic]’. Russia Today Arabic. January 13, 2017. Available online at: https://goo.gl/j5qTaJ

52 Quoted in: Christopher Dickey, ‘Jordan’s King Abdullah: “The New Taliban are in Syria”’. The Daily Beast, 2013, January 25. https://www.thedailybeast.com/ (accessed 22 March 2021).

53 Osama Al Sharif, ‘Jordan and the Challenge of Salafi Jihadists’. Middle East Institute, March 21, 2016. Available at: https://www.mei.edu/ (accessed 22 March 2021).

54 Nadeen Nimri, ‘In Jordan: Extremism is no longer the preserve of the poor and the marginalized [in Arabic]’. Raseef22, October 12, 2016. https://raseef22.net/ (accessed 22 March 2021).

55 Oliver Holmes, ‘Israeli Settlers Speak Out Against US-Backed Annexation Plan’. The Guardian, June 4, 2020. https://www.theguardian.com/ (accessed 22 March 2021).

56 C. R. Ryan, ‘The Armed Forces and the Arab Uprisings: The Case of Jordan’. Middle East Law and Governance Vol. 4. Issue 1 (2012): 153–167.

57 Ibid.

58 Ibid.

59 A. Bank, T. Richter and A. Sunik, ‘Durable, Yet Different: Monarchies in the Arab Spring’. Journal of Arabian Studies Vol. 4. Issue 2 (2014): 163–179.

60 David Mednicoff. ‘Arab Monarchical Stability and Political Liberalization: Connections between Morocco and Jordan’, in George Joffé (Ed.), Jordan in Transition, 1990–2000. London: Hurst, 2002, pp. 91–110.

61 Sean L. Yom, ‘Jordan’s Protests Are a Ritual, Not a Revolution’. Foreign Policy, June 11, 2018.

62 Christophersen, ‘Protest and Reform in Jordan’, op. cit.

63 Hamida Ghafour, ‘Survivor Jordan: How King Abdullah has Kept his Crown amid the Arab Uprisings’. The Star, June 10, 2013. Available online at: https://www.thestar.com/ (accessed 22 March 2021).

64 Laura C. Weir, From Diwan to Palace: Jordanian Tribal Politics and Elections. Doctoral dissertation, Case Western Reserve University, 2013.

65 Ibid., p. 85.

66 Ibid.

67 Human Rights Watch, ‘Jordan: Escalating Repression of Journalists’. August 18, 2020. https://www.hrw.org/ (accessed 22 March 2021).

68 Levitsky and Way, ‘Competitive Authoritarianism’, op. cit.

69 Human Rights Watch, ‘Jordan: New Arrests of Activists’, November 28, 2019. https://www.hrw.org/ (accessed 22 March 2021).

70 Ibid.

71 Ibid.

72 Ibid.

73 Ibid.

74 Ibid.

75 Martin Beck and Simone Hüser, ‘Jordan and the “Arab spring”: No Challenge, No Change?’ Middle East Critique Vol. 24. Issue 1 (2015): 83–97.

76 Ibid.

77 Jeremy M. Sharp, ‘Jordan: Background and U.S. Relations’. Congressional Research Service, 2020. https://crsreports.congress.gov (accessed 22 March 2021).

78 Ibid., p. 12.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Ghassan Elkahlout

Dr Ghassan ElKahlout is head of the MA Programme in Conflict Management and Humanitarian Action at the Doha Graduate Institute. He has a PhD in post-war reconstruction and development studies from York University, UK.

Alaa Hadid

Alaa Hadid is an MA Graduate of Conflict Management and Humanitarian Action at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, Doha, Qatar.