Exploring the Faultlines in Kyrgyzstan's Post 2010 Premier-Presidential System

Abstract

At independence in 1991, Kyrgyzstan inherited the former Soviet Union's distinct 'semi-presidential' system combining a robust president, a weak parliament, and a meek prime minister. Its governance then was categorized as a 'president-parliamentary' system under Shugart and Carey's typology. However, Kyrgyzstan's 2010 'April Revolution' paved the way for a new 'premier-presidential' system intended to elevate the status of the prime minister and parliament and thereby diffuse power among rival political elites. This 'premier-presidential' system turned out to be a short-lived experiment: the 2020 'October Uprising' resulted in a turn to a system of 'strong presidentialism'. This study aims to present an analysis of the fissures in the 'premier-presidential' system of 2010-2020 which eventually contributed to its downfall. It argues that the downfall of the premier-presidential system was primarily caused by two sets of factors, structural and contingent, working in tandem.

Keywords:

• Kyrgyzstan
• Semi-Presidential system
• President-Parliamentary system
• Premier-Presidential system
• Accountability

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank editor Bill Hayton and the two anonymous reviewers for constructive comments on earlier drafts of this article.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

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2 According to the 1996 amendment, if the prime minister failed to gain a vote of confidence, the president had the authority to dissolve Parliament.

3 OSCE/ODIHR, Kyrgyz Republic: Presidential Election 30 October 2011: OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission Final Report. Warsaw: Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, 2012, p. 5.

4 Bruce Pannier, ‘What’s In Kyrgyzstan’s Constitutional Referendum?’. Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, December 8, 2016, https://www.rferl.org/a/kyrgyzstan-constitutional-referendum-whats-at-stake/28164053.html (accessed 18 July 2022); Catherine Putz, Constitutional Clash: Date Set for Referendum in Kyrgyzstan’. The Diplomat, November 5, 2016, https://thediplomat.com/2016/11/constitutional-clash-date-set-for-referendum-in-kyrgyzstan/ (accessed 18 July 2022).

5 Erica Marat, ‘Kyrgyzstan: A Parliamentary System Based on Inter-Elite Consensus’. Demokratizatsiya Vol. 20. Issue 4 (2012).

6 Chris Rickleton, ‘Kyrgyzstan: On Constitution Anniversary, Reconsidering Presidential System’. eurasianet, June 27, 2011, https://eurasianet.org/kyrgyzstan-on-constitution-anniversary-reconsidering-presidential-system (accessed 5 April 2022).

7 Eugene Huskey and D. Hill, ‘Regionalism, personalism, ethnicity, and violence: parties and voter preference in the 2010 parliamentary election in Kyrgyzstan’. Post-Soviet Affairs Vol. 29. Issue 3 (2013): 238.

8 Ismail Aydingun and Aysegul Aydingun, ‘Nation-State Building in Kyrgyzstan and Transition to the Parliamentary System’. Parliamentary Affairs Vol. 67. Issue 2 (2014): 393. Several authors refer to the political structure introduced by Kyrgyzstan’s 2010 constitution as a ‘parliamentary system.’ However, this constitution specifically established a ‘premier-presidential’ system, a variation of the semi-presidential system that was discussed in more detail in the part that follow.

9 OSCE/ODIHR, Kyrgyz Republic: Presidential Election 15 October 2017: OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission Final Report. Warsaw: Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, 2018. However, Atambaev abused the law to eliminate Jeenbekov’s potential challengers (Ata-Meken party leader Omurbek Tekebaev and Sadyr Japarov) from the race for office. For more details see Charles J. Sullivan, ‘The Crumbling Kyrgyz Republic’, Asian Affairs Vol. 52. Issue 1 (2021); eurasianet, ‘Kyrgyzstan: Prosecutions Thin Ranks of Presidential Contenders’, August 18, 2017, https://eurasianet.org/kyrgyzstan-prosecutions-thin-ranks-of-presidential-contenders (accessed 15 July 2022).

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13 Huskey and Hill, op. cit.

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22 Eugene Huskey, Presidential Power in Russia. New York: M.E Sharpe, 1999.

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27 Ibid, p. 334.

28 Henry Hale, Patronal Politics: Eurasian Regime Dynamics in Comparative Perspective. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2015, p.77.

29 Fumagalli, ‘Semi-presidentialism in Kyrgyzstan’, op. cit.

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32 Doolotkeldieva and Wolters, op. cit., pp. 30-31.

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35 Somfalvy, op. cit., p. 551.

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37 Omurbek Ibraev, The Cost of Parliamentary Politics in Kyrgyzstan. Westminister Foundation For Democracy, 2016, p. 6.

38 Doolotkeldieva and Wolters, op. cit., p. 40.

39 OSCE/ODIHR, Kyrgyz Republic: Parliamentary Elections 4 October 2015: OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission Final Report, op. cit., p. 5.

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47 RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service, ‘Kyrgyz Opposition Leader's Detention Sparks Protest’. Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, February 26, 2017, https://www.rferl.org/a/kyrgyz-opposition-atameken-tekebaev-arrested/28332647.html (accessed 22 March 2022).

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49 RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service, ‘Kyrgyz Opposition Leader's Detention Sparks Protest’, op. cit.

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51 Sullivan, The Crumbling Kyrgyz Republic, op. cit., p. 47. “Legal institutional rupture”, which comprises altering, modifying, or misuse existing laws in order to persecute and neutralize competitors for short-term gain.

52 Almazbek Akmataliev, ‘Parlamentarizm v Kyrgyzstane: opyt i problemy’, Alibi, 23 March 2017, quoted in Johan Engvall, Between Bandits and Bureaucrats: 30 Years of Parliamentary Development in Kyrgyzstan. Lithuania: Central Asia- Caucasus Institute Silk Road Studies Program, 2022, p. 93.

53 McGlinchey, Chaos, Violence, Dynasty: Politics and Islam in Central Asia, op. cit., p. 10.

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55 Temur Omarov, ‘The Failure of Atambayev’s Planned Power Transition’. The Diplomat, August 23, 2019, https://thediplomat.com/2019/08/the-failure-of-atambayevs-planned-power-transition/ (accessed 21 July 2022).

56 International Republic Institute, ‘Public Opinion Survey Residents of Kyrgyzstan. February 15- March 2, 2017’. Centre For Insights in Survey Research. 2017.

57 Sullivan, The Crumbling Kyrgyz Republic, op. cit., p. 7. Bruce Pannier, ‘The Biggest Party in Kyrgyzstan Continues to Splinter Amid Infighting’. Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, May 29, 2020, https://www.rferl.org/a/the-biggest-party-in-kyrgyzstan-continues-to-splinter-amid-infighting/30641640.html (accessed 1 March 2022).

58 Omarov, op. cit.

59 Bruce Pannier, ‘The Split of Kyrgyzstan's Ruling Party And Its Wider Implications’. Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, March 27, 2019, https://www.rferl.org/a/the-split-of-kyrgyzstan-s-ruling-party-and-its-wider-implications/29845525.html (accessed 2 March 2022).

60 Darya Podolskaya, ‘Sagnbek Abdyrakhmanov elected leader of alternative SDPK party’. 24.kg, April 3, 2019, https://24.kg/english/113770_Sagynbek_Abdyrakhmanov_elected_leader_of_alternative_SDPK_party/ (accessed 5 March 2022).

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62 Pannier, ‘The Biggest Party In Kyrgyzstan Continues To Splinter Amid Infighting’, op. cit.

63 Marat, op. cit., p. 329.

64 RFE/RL Kyrgyz Service, ‘Atambaev at Risk as Kyrgyz Law Allowing Prosecution of Ex-Presidents Comes into Force’. Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, May 27, 2019, https://www.rferl.org/a/atambaev-at-risk-as-kyrgyz-law-allowing-prosecution-of-ex-presidents-comes-into-force/29965220.html (accessed 21 July 2022).

65 For more details see previous section of this article.

66 Omarov, op. cit.

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70 Aida Dzhumashova, ‘Medet Tyulegenov: Sapar Isakov's resignation- conventional victory of Jeenbekov’. 24.kg, April 19, 2018, https://24.kg/english/82159_Medet_Tyulegenov_Sapar_Isakovs_resignation_-_conventional_victory_of_Jeenbekov/ (accessed 4 March 2022).

71 Arend Lijphart, ‘Constitutional Design for Divided Societies’. Journal of Democracy Vol. 15 Issue 2 (2004): 102.

72 Huskey, ‘Eurasian semi-presidentialism: The development of Kyrgyzstan's model of government’, op. cit., p. 162.

73 G. Bingham Powell, Jr, ‘Constitutional Design and Citizen Electoral Control’. Journal of Theoretical Politics Vol. 1 Issue 2 (1989): 110.

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75 Because the ‘single pyramid system’ was replaced by the ‘competing-pyramid system’, power was dispersed among multiple major elites.

76 Asel Doolot and John Heathershaw, ‘State as resource, mediator and performer: understanding the local and global politics of gold mining in Kyrgyzstan’. Central Asian Survey Vol. 34. Issue 1 (2015): 104.

77 RFE/RL Kyrgyz Service, ‘Protesters Demand Release of Kyrgyz Opposition Leaders’. Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, October 4, 2012, https://www.rferl.org/a/kyrgyz-opposition-arrests/24728654.html (accessed 17 July 2022).

78 Catherine Putz, ‘Politician ‘s Arrest Sparks Weekend Protests in Kyrgyzstan’. The Diplomat, March 27, 2017, https://thediplomat.com/2017/03/politicians-arrest-sparks-weekend-protests-in-kyrgyzstan/ (accessed 17 July 2022).

79 Ibid.

80 Trilling, ‘Kyrgyzstan: Politics Holding Up Gold Mine Deal’, op. cit.

81 Doolot and Heathershaw, ‘State as resource, mediator and performer: understanding the local and global politics of gold mining in Kyrgyzstan’, op. cit, p. 103.

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83 David Trilling, ‘Kyrgyzstan's Premier Says No Gold Deal as Mining Industry Fizzles’. eurasianet, April 13, 2015, https://eurasianet.org/kyrgyzstans-premier-says-no-gold-deal-as-mining-industry-fizzles (accessed 13 April 2022).

84 Arslan Sabyrbekov, ‘Kyrgyzstan's Prime Minister Resigns’. The Central Asia- Caucasus Analyst, April 29, 2015, https://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/field-reports/item/13186-kyrgyzstan%E2%80%99s-prime-minister-resigns.html (accessed 28 March 2022).

85 Matteo Fumagalli, The Kumtor Gold Mine and the Rise of Resource Nationalism in Kyrgyzstan. Washington DC: Central Asia Program, Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies, The George Washington University, 2015, pp. 8-9.

86 Johan Engvall, ‘The Political Sources Of Kyrgyzstan’s Recent Unrest’. The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, June 26, 2013, https://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/12766-the-political-source-of-kyrgyzstan-recent-unrest.html (accessed 17 July 2022).

87 Catherine Putz, ‘11-Year Sentence for Former Kyrgyz President Atambayev's Role in Early Release of Aziz Batukayev’. The Diplomat, June 23, 2020, https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/11-year-sentence-for-former-kyrgyz-president-atambayevs-role-in-early-release-of-aziz-batukayev/ (accessed 30 March 2022).

88 RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service, ‘Kyrgyz Commission Chief Calls Kingpin's Early Release illegal’. Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, May 29, 2013, https://www.rferl.org/a/kyrgyzstan-murderer-batukaev-chechnya-freed/25000914.html (accessed 2 April 2022).

89 Zairbek Baktybaev and Daisy Sindelar, ‘Kyrgyz Crime Boss's Cushy Prison Life Prompts Calls For Government Purge’. Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, May 30, 2013, https://www.rferl.org/a/kyrgyzstan-batukaev-government-purge/25002413.html (accessed 3 April 2022).

90 eurasianet, ‘Kyrgyzstan: Atambayev gets 11 years for crime boss release’, June 23, 2020, https://eurasianet.org/kyrgyzstan-atambayev-gets-11-years-for-crime-boss-release (accessed 4 April 2022).

91 Ibid.

92 Catherine Putz, ‘Former Kyrgyz President Detained After Second Raid’. The Diplomat, August 8, 2019, https://thediplomat.com/2019/08/former-kyrgyz-president-after-second-raid/ (accessed 14 August 2022).

93 Catherine Putz, ‘Atambayev Headed for Retrial in Batukayev Case After Supreme Court Cancels Conviction’. The Diplomat, December 1, 2020, https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/Atambayev-headed-for-retrial-in-batukayev-case-after-supreme-court-cancels-conviction/ (accessed 14 August 2022).

94 Ermek Baisalov, ‘Parliamentarism Has Failed in Kyrgyzstan": Interview with Zainidin Kurmanov’. Central Asian Bureau for Analytical Reporting, December 14, 2020, https://cabar.asia/en/parliamentarism-has-failed-in-kyrgyzstan-interview-with-zainidin-kurmanov (accessed 4 April 2022).

95 Mariya Y. Omelicheva, ‘Why did Kyrgyz Voters Give Up Parliamentarism?’. The Diplomat, January 12, 2021, https://thediplomat.com/2021/01/why-did-kyrgyz-voters-give-up-parliamentarism/ (accessed 16 July 2022).

96 ‘One Year Later in the Kyrgyz Republic Battle Against Covid-19’. The World Bank, March 17, 2021. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2021/03/17/one-year-later-in-the-kyrgyz-republic-s-battle-against-covid-19 (accessed 22 July 2022).

97 The World Bank, ‘Poverty Headcount ratio at national poverty lines (% of population) – Kyrgyz Republic’, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.NAHC?locations=KG (accessed 27 July 2022).

98 Aruuke Uran Kyzy, ‘Covid-19 in Kyrgyzstan: National Unity and Frustration’. The Diplomat, June 21, 2020, https://thediplomat.com/2020/07/covid-19-in-kyrgyzstan-national-unity-and-frustration/ (accessed 22 July 2022).

99 Adam Hug, 'Retreating Rights: Examining the Pressure on Human Rights in Kyrgyzstan'. London: Foreign Policy Centre, 1 March 2021, p. 80.

100 Alexandra Li, ‘No Transparency in Kyrgyzstan’s Coronavirus Spending’. Crime, Corruption, and Coronavirus, June 24, 2020, https://www.occrp.org/en/coronavirus/no-transparency-in-kyrgyzstan-coronavirus-spending (accessed 29 July 2022).

101 Doolotkeldieva, The 2020 Violent Change in Government in Kyrgyzstan Amid the Covid-19 Pandemic: Three Distinct Stories in One, op. cit., p. 162.

102 Centre For Insights in Survey Research, ‘Public Opinion Poll Residents of Kyrgyzstan: August 6- August 15, 2020’. Washington, DC: International Republican Institute, 2020.

103 Ibid.

104 RFE/RL Kyrgyz Service, ‘Dozens Detained as Police Disperse Protest in Support of Jailed Politician Japarov’. Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, March 2, 2020, https://www.rferl.org/a/supporters-of-jailed-kyrgyz-politician-rally-in-bishkek-demand-his-release/30464190.html (accessed 17 July 2022).

105 Charles J. Sullivan, ‘KYRGYZSTAN’S NEW KINGPIN’. Asian Affairs Vol. 53. Issue 1 (2022): 4.

106 Ibid.

107 The Birimdik party was formed in 2020, and its leader was Marat Amankulov. Its candidates included Asylbek, the younger brother of President Jeenbekov. This party had a strong links to the then president. For more details see; Bruce Pannier, ‘Kyrgyzstan: A Guide to the Parties Competing in the parliamentary elections’. Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, October 3, 2020, https://www.rferl.org/a/kyrgyzstan-a-guide-to-the-parties-competing-in-the-parliamentary-elections/30871908.html (accessed 24 June 2022); Catherine Putz, ‘Victory for the Status Quo in Kyrgyz Parliamentary Election’. The Diplomat, October 5, 2020, https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-could-ultimately-vote-against-all-in-the parliamentary-polls/ (accessed 24 June 2022).

108 Colleen Wood, ‘Kyrgyzstan Could Ultimately Vote ‘Against All' in the Parliamentary Polls’. The Diplomat, September 30, 2020, https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-could-ultimately-vote-against-all-in-the parliamentary-polls/ (accessed 10 March 2022).

109 Kyrgyzstan’s parliamentary election held on October 4, 2020. Following the Protest, the Central Election Commission subsequently declared the election to be annulled on October 6, 2020.

110 After the 2015 legislative elections, Mekenim Kyrgyzstan was formed. The influential Matraimov family, particularly Rayimbek Matraimov, founded and funded the party. He had previously held the position of deputy chief of the Custom Service, and he was accused of using his authority unlawfully to amass millions of dollars. The then President Jeenbekov and this party were closely connected.

111 The Kyrgyzstan party was founded in 2015. The Kyrgyzstan party was perceived as the SDPK’s stalking horse in the 2015 elections, but in the years after the beginning of SDPK’s infighting between Jeenbekov and Atambaev, Kyrgyzstan party has emerged as a pro-government party. For more details see; Pannier, Kyrgyzstan: A Guide to the Parties Competing in the parliamentary elections, op. cit.

112 Butun Kyrgyzstan party was stablished in 2010 and its leader is Adakhan Madumarov. It is an opposition party.

113 Aigerim Turgunbaeva, ‘Kyrgyzstan's Messy Parliamentary Election Sparks Protests in Bishkek’. The Diplomat, October 6, 2020, https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-messy-parliamentary-election-sparks-protests-inbishkek/ (accessed 10 March 2022).

114 OSCE/ODIHR, Kyrgyz Republic: Parliamentary Elections 4 October 2020 Final Report. Warsaw: OSCE/ODIHR, 2020, p. 1.

115 Fergana Ru, ‘Chetyre politicheskie partii Kyrgyzstana vydvinuli Omurbeka Babanova na post premiera’. 2020, https://fergana.site/news/121111/ (accessed 21 July 2022).

116 Asel Doolotkeldieva, ‘The 2020 Violent Change in Government in Kyrgyzstan Amid the Covid-19 Pandemic: Three Distinct Stories in One’, in Anja Mihr (Ed.), Between Peace and Conflict in the East and the West: Studies on Transformation and Development in the OSCE Region. Bishkek: Springer, 2021, p. 166.

117 Ibid., p. 167.

118 TASS, ‘Acting president of Kyrgyzstan grants Sooronbay Jeenbekov with ‘ex-president' status’, October 16, 2020, https://tass.com/world/1213135 (accessed 28 August 2022).

119 France 24, ‘Kyrgyzstan instability looms as five PMs jailed’, September 24, 2021, https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210924-kyrgyzstan-instability-looms-as-five-pms-jailed (accessed 28 March 2022).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Jagmeet Bawa

Jagmeet Bawa is Head of the Department of Political Science, Central University of Himachal Pradesh, Dharmshala (HP) India

Gurphej Singh

Gurphej Singh is Senior Research Fellow, Department of Political Science, Central University of Himachal Pradesh, Dharmshala (HP) India.