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Articles

CHINA’S MARGINAL INVOLVEMENT IN THE 2023 IRAN-SAUDI ARABIA RECONCILIATION

 

Abstract

The restoration of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March 2023 has been described as a landmark in China’s advancing engagement in Middle Eastern affairs. This article argues, however, that China’s role in the deal was minimal and that the main drivers of the agreement were Iran and Saudi Arabia’s own objectives and concerns and, in particular, Saudi Arabia’s growing economic and military power. China’s greatest influence resulted from its intervention on the side of Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf Arab states and the Tehran leadership’s perceptions that Beijing’s commercial interests were leading it to side with Riyadh. The Iranian government’s fears were exacerbated by concerns about mass protests in Iran in 2022 and the outcomes of the China-GCC Summit in December of that year. At the same time, Saudi Arabia chose to de-escalate its confrontation with Iran to strengthen its regional and global power underpinned by the huge Vision 2030 development programme.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

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3 Grant Golub, ‘Significance of the Iran-Saudi Arabia Agreement Brokered by China’. Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Centre for Science and International Affairs, March 2023, https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/significance-iran-saudi-arabia-agreement-brokered-china (accessed 16 September 2023).

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8 Hossein Sadeghi and Hassan Ahmadian, ‘Iran-Saudi Relations: Past Pattern, Future Outlook’. Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs Vol. 1. Issue 4 (2011): 120.

9 Ibid., pp. 135–137.

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30 ‘TIV of arms imports to the top 5 largest importers, 2000–2022’. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, https://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/html/export_toplist.php (accessed July 2023).

31 Ibid., 2023.

32 Abdolrasool Divsallar, ‘The Militarization of Iran’s Perception of Saudi Arabia’. The Muslim World Vol. 113 (Winter-Spring 2023): 184–185

33 Ibid., pp. 84–185.

34 ‘CNBC's full interview with Saudi Arabia’s minister of state for foreign affairs’. CNBC, January 19, 2023, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RlMBlC_O-Nw (accessed 7 August 2023).

35 Ibid. Julia Masterson, ‘Saudi Arabia Said to Produce Ballistic Missiles’. Arms Control Association, 2022, https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2022-01/news/saudi-arabia-said-produce-ballistic-missiles (accessed April 2022).

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37 Ibid, p. 6.

38 Sarah Muhanna Al Niami, ‘Economic Diversification Trends in the Gulf: the Case of Saudi Arabia’. Circular Economy and Sustainability Vol. 2 (2022): 221–230.

39 ‘Vision2030 Plan’. The Embassy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Washington DC, 2016, https://www.vision2030.gov.sa/v2030/overview/ (accessed July 2023): 7, 82 and 47.

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48 Ibrahim Atta, ‘From Confrontational to Subtle Diplomacy: the Reorientation of Saudi Foreign Policy’. Gulf International Forum, May 2023, https://gulfif.org/from-confrontational-to-subtle-diplomacy-the-reorientation-of-saudi-foreign-policy/ (accessed 17 September 2023).

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52 Mustafa Abu Sneineh and Simon Hooper, ‘Saudi Arabia gives green light for talks with Iran’. Middle East Eye, October 1, 2019, https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/exclusive-saudi-arabia-gives-green-light-for-talks-with-Iran (accessed 11 August 2023).

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57 Ibid., pp. 178–179.

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59 John W. Garver, China and Iran, Ancient Partners in a Post-Imperial World. The University of Washington Press, 2006, p. 3.

60 Muhamad Olimat, China, and the Middle East, from Silk Road to Arab Spring. Routledge, 2012, p. 154.

61 John W. Garver, China and Iran, Ancient Partners in a Post-Imperial World. The University of Washington Press, 2006, p. 79.

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64 Ibid.

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73 Qassim Abdul-Zahra, ‘Saudi-Iran talks said to have stalled over protests in Iran’. Associated Press, December 19, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/iran-iraq-tehran-976f8fe3ffd9653acd42651092dad7e8 (accessed 11 August 2023).

74 Saeed Azimi, ‘The Story behind China’s role in the Iran-Saudi Deal’. STIMSON, March 13, 2023, https://www.stimson.org/2023/the-story-behind-chinas-role-in-the-iran-saudi-deal/ (accessed 23 July 2023).

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76 Michael McFaul and Abbas Milani, ‘How China’s Saudi-Iran deal can serve U.S. interests’. Foreign Policy, March 14, 2023, https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/14/china-saudi-iran-us-middle-east-geopolitics-diplomacy/ (accessed 24 July 2023).

77 Nasser Kananni ‘The Statement of the GCC is the Repetition of Failed Policy of Iranophobia’, Islamic Republic News Agency, December 10, 2022, https://irna.ir/xjLd2j. See also the Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, on his Twitter page both in Persian and Chinese, tweeted that “The three islands are the inseparable parts of Iran, and we do not accept any countries’ comments on that.” Hossein Amir-Abdollahian (@Amirabdolahian), ‘The Three Islands are Inseparable Parts of Iran’, December 11, 2022, https://bit.ly/3tXDVd4 (accessed July 2023).

78 Saeed Azimi, ‘The Story behind China’s role in the Iran-Saudi Deal’. STIMSON, March 13, 2023, https://www.stimson.org/2023/the-story-behind-chinas-role-in-the-iran-saudi-deal/ (accessed 23 July 2023).

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82 Ahmad Aboudouh, ‘China’s Mediation between Saudi and Iran is No Cause for Panic in Washington’. Atlantic Council, March 2023, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/chinas-mediation-between-saudi-and-iran-is-no-cause-for-panic-in-washington/ (accessed 27 February 2024).

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84 Degang Sun and Yahia Zoubir, ‘China’s Participation in Conflict Resolution in the Middle East and North Africa: A Case of Quasi-mediation Diplomacy?’ Journal of Contemporary China, October (2017): 240.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Niloufar Baghernia

Niloufar Baghernia is a PhD Candidate in International Relations at the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, the Australian National University (ANU). Currently, she serves as a sessional tutor at the ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences.Email: [email protected]