Traffic accident risk perception among drivers: a latent variable approach

ABSTRACT

Governments require decision tools to deal with road traffic accidents, a pandemic resulting in millions of deaths around the world. Evidence shows that human factors are one of the major causes of road accidents, and there is much interest in identifying variables that may have an impact on drivers’ perception of risk. To this aim, we design a stated choice experiment with eight hypothetical driving scenarios considering attributes that have been strongly associated with increased accident risks: (i) driving speed, (ii) driving the wrong way in a one-way street, (iii) overtaking on a bend, and (iv) driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs. Data from a sample of survey respondents are used to estimate a hybrid discrete choice model incorporating two latent variables, Driver Concentration and Safe Driving. Our results may contribute to the design of public policies geared to prevent accidents by encouraging safer driving behaviour.

KEYWORDS:

• Road traffic accidents
• risk perception
• latent variables
• hybrid discrete choice model

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Víctor Pachón and Jesús Zabaleta for their support in the data collection stage.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

ORCID

Thomas E. Guerrero http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3690-256X

Juan de Dios Ortuzar http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3452-3574