Spatial variations in transport character

The aim of this paper is to show, by means of cluster and principal component analysis of sub‐regional data, common patterns of spatial variation among transport and other social, economic and demographic characteristics.

By creating synthetic proxies for affluence and urban density from the principal components, density is shown significantly to affect both the intensity of car and public transport use and the proportion of work trips dependent upon neither mechanical mode.

This, together with the independent effects of population change on ownership and transport use, has two implications for transport forecasting: that at this level of spatial aggregation the relative attractiveness of public transport to choice riders is only a marginal determinant of total modal split and that the assumed correspondence between the travel behaviour of existing and new populations may persistently underestimate levels of car ownership and usage.