Unlimited information diffusion method and application in risk analysis in coronary heart disease

Abstract

There is a need for methods that will extract accurate results from limited data in information processing. This paper probes into the mechanism of unlimited information diffusion, which is similar to those of molecular diffusion and heat conduction. Therefore the information diffusion function is deduced to be the solution of the Cauchy problem. Then we apply it to a practical project to study the relationship between the prevalence rates of coronary heart disease and the relevant risk factors. The results are satisfactory and reveal that the information diffusion technique is efficient in dealing with the small sample problem. Finally, in order to get rid of the randomicity of the parameter in the information diffusion function, two criteria are proposed for the establishment of an optimization model in the one-dimensional case.

Keywords:

• Information diffusion
• prevalence rate
• optimization
• coronary heart disease

Acknowledgements

We thank Dr Huang Chongfu for his kind help. Project 19831020 is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Notes

Hanji Shang graduated from the Department of Mathematics at Fudan University in Shanghai, China, in 1960. Since then, he has engaged in the application of mathematics in the field of engineering and insurance. The Chinese Government awarded a First Prize of the National Science and Technology Achievements Award to him in 1986, and also a First Prize of the National Teaching Achievements Award in 1997. He is currently (2003) a Professor of Applied Mathematics at Fudan University and also the director of the AIA-Fudan Actuarial Center. He has published four books and more than 60 papers.

Yuchu Lu graduated from the Department of Mathematics at Fudan University in Shanghai, China, in 1969. He restudied mathematics at the Chinese University of Science and Technology in Hefei Anhui province in 1978. He is now working at Shanghai University and engaging in the application of mathematics in the field of fuzzy mathematics and insurance.

Ping Jin received her BS in applied mathematics from Fudan University in Shanghai, China, in 2000. She is now pursuing her MS at Fudan University. Actuarial science is her area of research in the graduate study program.

Li Zhang received his MS in applied mathematics from Fudan University in Shanghai, China, in 2002. His research area is actuarial science. He is now working at PriceWaterhouseCoopers.

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